Turkish Cypriots feel sidelined (The Cyprus Weekly, 18 March 2016)

By Esra Aygin

The ongoing dialogue between Turkey, the Republic of Cyprus and the European Union regarding the migration deal has led to concerns in the northern part of Cyprus that Turkish Cypriots are being sidelined.

A conversation between Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and Pre-sident Nicos Anastasiades during last-week’s EU-Turkey migration summit in Brussels prompted Turkish Cypriot media to report a “secret” meeting between the two, adding fuel to the fire.

“Is (Mustafa) Akinci being bypassed?” asked journalist Sami Ozuslu in his column in daily Yeniduzen.

“The increasing dialogue between Turkey and South Nicosia – even if ‘informal’ – is putting Turkish Cypriots, and the elected leader who represents them, in a difficult position,” Ozuslu wrote.

“As a person who believes that such contacts have more benefits than harm, even I don’t approve of the fact that the elected leader of Turkish Cypriots is being sidelined.

“Real peace on this island will only be achieved through the active participation of the two communities. I don’t know whether Akinci has asked for an explanation from Ankara, but…Turkish Cypriots are being bypassed.”

The EU wants a deal with Turkey to stem the flow of migrants in the continent’s worst refugee crisis since WWII.

EU leaders have been involved in shuttle diplomacy between Turkey and Cyprus to overcome the deadlock.

The concern of some in the north is that the interests of Turkish Cypriots may be compromised in negotiations between Turkey, Cyprus and the EU, amidst the urgency and severity of the big picture.

Baris Burcu, spokesperson for Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci, said that the dialogue between Turkey and the south is merely about the Greek Cypriot veto on the opening of certain chapters in the Turkey-EU accession negotiations, and does not concern the Cyprus problem.

“We know there are contacts in this regard, and we see these as natural,” Burcu added.

Former Turkish Cypriot chief negotiator and leader of the newly established People’s Party Kudret Ozersay said Burcu’s statements were a “confession” that the Turkish Cypriot side is being bypassed.

A senior Turkish Cypriot official speaking on condition of anonymity however said such concerns were “exaggerated”.

“There are no secret meetings between Turkey and Greek Cypriots,” the official said.

“We are being notified of every single meeting and contact. We are aware of every step Turkey intends to take. We are not being sidelined.”

http://in-cyprus.com/turkish-cypriots/

Schulz: A unique chance for Cyprus (The Cyprus Weekly, 11 March 2016)

By Esra Aygin

In an interview with the Cyprus Weekly and Havadis, President of the European Parliament Martin Schulz talks up the prospects of a peace deal on the island and hints that major developments will soon unfold

How do you see the prospects of a solution in Cyprus this year?

Schulz: This long-lasting conflict is one of the unsolved problems in the enlargement of the European Union. When we enlarged the EU in 2004,we had hoped that the Annan Plan would be accepted and that the whole island would join the bloc. But things developed differently. Now, there is a unique chance for unification. If this happens,we will finally complete the union of Europe.

How can the European Parliament and EU institutions in general facilitate a solution in Cyprus?

Schulz: This is one of the reasons why I will go to Cyprus in the next couple of weeks – at the end of March. I will meet with the government and with both communities to find out whether there is an option to help, to be helpful, to contribute.

Will you be visiting Turkish Cypriot leader Akinci during your visit?

Schulz: Sure!

Do you think EU institutions could help with the financing of a solution in Cyprus?

Schulz: If financial support could help, we are always prepared to discuss it.

There are concerns that a deal in Cyprus may be legally challenged unless certain provisions become EU primary law. Are these concerns legitimate?

Schulz: From a principles point of view, this is a question of self-determination on the island. If both sides, both communities decide to go for a reunification of the island and this is accepted in a referendum, I can’t see the European Court of Justice overrule such a decision. The question here is, whether there will be some details in the agreement that are incompatible with fundamental rules of the EU. But I can’t imagine that a member state of the EU would conclude an agreement, which is not compatible with the fundamental European rules.

There are certain derogations that sides might want to include in the agreement…

Schulz: I will not speculate about derogations because these are up to the two sides to discuss.

But if the two sides decide on certain derogations, would the EU accommodate these?

Schulz: This clearly depends on the compatibi-lity of the derogations with the basic rules of the EU.

Many people think this is the last chance for a solution in Cyprus – at least for a federal solution. What will happen if the solution process fails again?

Schulz: Then we would fail a historical chance. This is a historical moment. If we don’t achieve a solution now, then this will be a real failure. My feeling is that the two leaders are the two people who can pull this through. We should not forget that President Anastasiades was the man who supported the Annan Plan 12 years ago. He has a high credibility for really struggling and fighting for reunification. My feeling is that Turkish Cypriot leader Akinci is also very committed to a solution. I meet both men often, and I believe that if we don’t achieve a solution now, we will miss a historic opportunity.

There are efforts to open chapter 23 and 24 in Turkey’s EU accession negotiations. How will you overcome Cyprus’ veto on these chapters?

Schulz: The only way to overcome this obstacle is [for Cyprus and Turkey] to deepen their dialogue on the basis of mutual understanding and commitment. I want to add here that Ankara has never been so strongly committed to a solution in Cyprus for a very long time.

You see a strong commitment by Ankara to a solution in Cyprus right now?

Schulz: I spoke with the Turkish Prime Minister and the Turkish Foreign Minister just yesterday [on Monday]. And my feeling is, there is something mo-ving in Ankara. We aren’t where we want to be yet – and I can’t go into details to say why – but my feeling is, there is a certain movement in Ankara.

In terms of a solution in Cyprus?

Schulz: Turkey is discussing. I know that the Turkish government and the Turkish parliament are discussing concrete steps, which are not easy for Turkey. By the way, these are also not easy for Cyprus. But we had a long period without any dialogue [between Turkey and Cyprus]. But now, there are people speaking to each other and I know that there are a lot of contacts.Perhaps these are not very well known by the public. But there are things that are going on, that make me much more optimistic than I was in the past.

Are there contacts between the Republic of Cyprus and Turkey?

Schulz: Not officially but individually.

Do these contacts concern guarantees?

Schulz:I don’t want to make public too early what makes me optimistic. Therefore, I remain to be very general: There are talks on the road, which could lead to enormous improvement.

What message would you like to send to all Cypriots?

Schulz: I was born in a country, which was divided. It took 41 years for Germany to be reunified. Cypriots have a unique chance to do as Germany did, and reunify their island. In a time when so many countries are falling apart, and we are becoming more and more divided, a country that reunifies after such a long period of division will show that everything is possible. Our wishes are with the Cypriots of both sides.

http://in-cyprus.com/a-unique-chance-for-cyprus/

Fear over ‘Mafia rule’ in north (The Cyprus Weekly, 26 February 2016)

By Esra Aygin

A spate of underworld-style crimes in recent weeks has sparked off questions over police inaction and reignited the public debate on the casino-nightclub-mafia triangle in the northern part of Cyprus.
The Turkish Cypriot community was shaken by a slew of almost simultaneous arsons on the same night earlier this week on two auto showrooms and the headquarters of a company in what seemed to be a racketeering tactic. Two other vehicles were set on fire in the past week, while a man was caught on security cameras leaving a decapitated dog at the door of a local newspaper. Lastly, the suspect in a mafia showdown trial thundered at the deputy police superintendent during the court hearing, saying: “I feel sorry for you. You will beg me.”
“The order of the streets has replaced the order of law in this country,” wrote Huseyin Ekmekci, the chief editor of Havadis newspaper in his column. “Unfortunately, the police is not taking effective action. Some things are being tolerated. Some things are being covered up. Those who are in charge of ensuring justice are becoming a part of injustice.”
A peculiar statement by the police disclosing that it is receiving threats “from some individuals involved in organised crime” only added insult to injury.
“Lately, some individuals are trying to intimidate or terrorise members of the police,” read a statement from the police headquarters.
We will continue our operations against these crime groups fearlessly with determination and vigour. We will fulfil our duties without shying away or making exceptions.”
The statement, however, was short of convincing.
“The duty of the police is not to swagger. The duty of the police is to take action,” wrote Ekmekci.
“The police is failing to take action against criminal activities, as well as certain of its members who are entangled in suspicious relations.”
The fact that the north is outside the scope of international law makes it a convenient place for illegal activities, according to Ekmekci. And the large casino and nightclub sector further feeds into this climate.
There are some 30 casinos and over 40 nightclubs – which effectively function as brothels – in the north.
The tax payments by these casinos and nightclubs constitute almost 40% of the local budget of the north, which may explain why officials often turn a blind eye to most of the shady incidents and relations in and around these sectors.
Numerous reports by international institutions as well as the US State Department indicate that the casinos and nightclubs in the northern part of Cyprus remain essentially unregulated, and draw attention to the fact that the place is vulnerable to money-laundering and human-trafficking abuses.

http://in-cyprus.com/fear-over-mafia-rule-in-north/

Turkey piles on the pressure (The Cyprus Weekly, 19 February 2016)

By Esra Aygin

The relations between Turkey and the north turned sour once again during the past week after the Turkish government mounted pressure on Turkish Cypriots to accept its terms for the operation of water from Turkey whilst also repeating its demand that some 10,000 Turks living on the island to be naturalised.

Following tense negotiations in Ankara over the management of water reaching the island through a trans-Mediterranean pipeline, Turkish Cypriot “prime minister” Omer Kalyoncu implied that the water will not be delivered unless Turkey’s terms are accepted, and complained of the oppressive treatment of his “ministers” during the meetings.

“Turkish Cypriot ministers had to deal with Turkish deputy undersecretaries who sat opposite them. This is a problem. The treatment we were faced with in Ankara indicates why this process did not lead to a positive conclusion,” said Kalyoncu.

The draft agreement reached in Ankara, which envisages the operation of the water by a private company, has once again been rejected by the CTP party assembly, as well as many political parties and non-governmental organisations in the north mainly on grounds that it bypasses municipalities.

In a separate development that added fuel to the flames, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reportedly lambasted visiting Turkish Cypriot officials for not naturalising some 10,000 Turks, who have gained the right to apply for and receive Turkish Cypriot citizenship.

“Why are you not granting the citizenships? You have to take the necessary steps,” Erdogan was quoted by Turkish daily Milliyet as saying.

Under the current Turkish Cypriot citizenship law, anyone – who has been living in the northern part of the island legally for at least five years – is entitled to apply for and receive citizenship.

However, The Turkish Cypriot administration has halted the granting of citizenships except for births and marriages since Republican Turkish Party CTP came to the “government” as the major coalition partner in 2013.

This is not the first time the citizenship issue was raised by Turkish authorities.

During his visit to the north in December, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu reportedly asked citizenships to be granted to some 26,500 Turks.

It is understood that Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party AKP, which held an election campaign in the northern part of Cyprus too ahead of the November general elections in Turkey, made a promise to the Turks on the island that their citizenship problem would be solved.

The reiteration of this demand prompted Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci to make a public statement.

“I have never approved the mass granting of citizenships and there is no harm in saying this,” said Akinci. “There is a negotiation process that I am carrying out based on the formal citizenship data. These data include all our citizens. I cannot keep changing the data on the table.”

It remains to be seen how the latest standoff between Turkey and Turkish Cypriots will end. The Turkish Cypriot administration has limited room to manoeuvre however, as it economically depends on Turkey.

“Unfortunately as Turkish Cypriots, we have an unhealthy relationship with Turkey,” said CTP “parliamentarian” Armagan Candan. And this fact, which arises from being economically dependent on Turkey, slaps us in the face especially during sensitive times as these.”

http://in-cyprus.com/turkey-piles-on-the-pressure/

Move towards end game (The Cyprus Weekly, 12 February 2016)

By Esra Aygin

Seen from the public angle it has not been the best of weeks for the Cyprus settlement talks. Leaders President Nicos Anastasiades and Turkish Cypriot Mustafa Akinci have publicly differed over interpretations of what has been agreed and Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been cited as saying that the return of Morphou is not on the table.

But behind the scenes a lot has already been achieved and those involved in the negotiations are already thinking ahead to planning and implementation.

“We are done with the bulk of the work in four chapters – governance and power sharing, EU, economy, property, although a couple of important outstanding issues remain,” said UN Special Advisor Espen Barth Eide.

He said it had been agreed that territorial adjustment and guarantees would be tackled at the end “but that does not mean that they have not been touched upon. What it means is that the maps and figures part of territory will be at the end”.

Quiet work has already started on security and guarantees.

“The final conclusions of this will be in that last phase … I have been quite frequently in touch with Athens and Ankara and London and the Security Council and all the interested players, and obviously with the sides, to try to see how we can prepare that phase.”

Eide is upbeat on the initial outcome.

“When I started I thought it would be the most important and the most difficult. But now I still think it’s important but not necessarily the most difficult,” Eide said.

“Traditionally security has been sought to the detriment of the other side … So you have to find a new model of security, where I am secure and you are secure, and I don’t mind that you are secure because your security is not to my detriment, that we are secure together.”

Practical implementation

While the political deals are being sorted out, the focus is already shifting to the implementation stage.

“We are in the early stages of that now,” said Eide, when asked if they were already in discussions on how the solution will be implemented.

“We are now into the technical phase where we are working on a number of very important issues, but issues that are not really politically divisive … It’s funding, it’s the euro implementation in the north, it’s the acquis, it’s preparing for constitutional work, its thinking about implementation.

“All these issues must be done.And they will take months.”

The main idea is to ensure that everything is ready for the moment the political deal is sealed.

“We want to make sure that when we get to the phase where the final, truly political, difficult issues are settled, we have the framework for the rest already down and prepared and planned,” said the UN envoy.

“This is the phasing …what will happen immediately, what will happen in two months.”

A package solution for finance

One key aspect of preparation relates to the economics of a solution.

“The IMF, the World Bank and the EU Commission are here constantly now. There is a big delegation almost every week looking at different economic aspects.

“They are working on issues like introduction of the euro to the north, banking sector, viability, debt pension obligations, all practical issues of an economy and all this work will be factored into a solution.”

As regards financing, Eide indicated that they were looking at a combination of options from the public and private sector.

“We are looking into a package solution that would involve two forms of international public support, plus international investment. And the two forms are a combination of grants or donations and guarantees that can help the foreign private investment.”

Guarantees on government bonds from highly-rated countries or institutions can help countries borrow at lower rates. The US, for example, has frequently guaranteed Israel’s bonds.

“The private investor would say I can take this risk because it’s not so high,” Eide explains.

http://in-cyprus.com/42141-2/

Turkey piles on the pressure (The Cyprus Weekly, 20 February 2016)

By Esra Aygin

The relations between Turkey and the north turned sour once again during the past week after the Turkish government mounted pressure on Turkish Cypriots to accept its terms for the operation of water from Turkey whilst also repeating its demand that some 10,000 Turks living on the island to be naturalised.

Following tense negotiations in Ankara over the management of water reaching the island through a trans-Mediterranean pipeline, Turkish Cypriot “prime minister” Omer Kalyoncu implied that the water will not be delivered unless Turkey’s terms are accepted, and complained of the oppressive treatment of his “ministers” during the meetings.

“Turkish Cypriot ministers had to deal with Turkish deputy undersecretaries who sat opposite them. This is a problem. The treatment we were faced with in Ankara indicates why this process did not lead to a positive conclusion,” said Kalyoncu.

The draft agreement reached in Ankara, which envisages the operation of the water by a private company, has once again been rejected by the CTP party assembly, as well as many political parties and non-governmental organisations in the north mainly on grounds that it bypasses municipalities.

In a separate development that added fuel to the flames, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reportedly lambasted visiting Turkish Cypriot officials for not naturalising some 10,000 Turks, who have gained the right to apply for and receive Turkish Cypriot citizenship.

“Why are you not granting the citizenships? You have to take the necessary steps,” Erdogan was quoted by Turkish daily Milliyet as saying.

Under the current Turkish Cypriot citizenship law, anyone – who has been living in the northern part of the island legally for at least five years – is entitled to apply for and receive citizenship.

However, The Turkish Cypriot administration has halted the granting of citizenships except for births and marriages since Republican Turkish Party CTP came to the “government” as the major coalition partner in 2013.

This is not the first time the citizenship issue was raised by Turkish authorities.

During his visit to the north in December, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu reportedly asked citizenships to be granted to some 26,500 Turks.

It is understood that Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party AKP, which held an election campaign in the northern part of Cyprus too ahead of the November general elections in Turkey, made a promise to the Turks on the island that their citizenship problem would be solved.

The reiteration of this demand prompted Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci to make a public statement.

“I have never approved the mass granting of citizenships and there is no harm in saying this,” said Akinci. “There is a negotiation process that I am carrying out based on the formal citizenship data. These data include all our citizens. I cannot keep changing the data on the table.”

It remains to be seen how the latest standoff between Turkey and Turkish Cypriots will end. The Turkish Cypriot administration has limited room to manoeuvre however, as it economically depends on Turkey.

“Unfortunately as Turkish Cypriots, we have an unhealthy relationship with Turkey,” said CTP “parliamentarian” Armagan Candan. And this fact, which arises from being economically dependent on Turkey, slaps us in the face especially during sensitive times as these.”

http://in-cyprus.com/turkey-piles-on-the-pressure/

Move towards end game (The Cyprus Weekly, 14 February 2016)

By Esra Aygin

Seen from the public angle it has not been the best of weeks for the Cyprus settlement talks. Leaders President Nicos Anastasiades and Turkish Cypriot Mustafa Akinci have publicly differed over interpretations of what has been agreed and Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been cited as saying that the return of Morphou is not on the table.

But behind the scenes a lot has already been achieved and those involved in the negotiations are already thinking ahead to planning and implementation.

“We are done with the bulk of the work in four chapters – governance and power sharing, EU, economy, property, although a couple of important outstanding issues remain,” said UN Special Advisor Espen Barth Eide.

He said it had been agreed that territorial adjustment and guarantees would be tackled at the end “but that does not mean that they have not been touched upon. What it means is that the maps and figures part of territory will be at the end”.

Quiet work has already started on security and guarantees.

“The final conclusions of this will be in that last phase … I have been quite frequently in touch with Athens and Ankara and London and the Security Council and all the interested players, and obviously with the sides, to try to see how we can prepare that phase.”

Eide is upbeat on the initial outcome.

“When I started I thought it would be the most important and the most difficult. But now I still think it’s important but not necessarily the most difficult,” Eide said.

“Traditionally security has been sought to the detriment of the other side … So you have to find a new model of security, where I am secure and you are secure, and I don’t mind that you are secure because your security is not to my detriment, that we are secure together.”

Practical implementation

While the political deals are being sorted out, the focus is already shifting to the implementation stage.

“We are in the early stages of that now,” said Eide, when asked if they were already in discussions on how the solution will be implemented.

“We are now into the technical phase where we are working on a number of very important issues, but issues that are not really politically divisive … It’s funding, it’s the euro implementation in the north, it’s the acquis, it’s preparing for constitutional work, its thinking about implementation.

“All these issues must be done.And they will take months.”

The main idea is to ensure that everything is ready for the moment the political deal is sealed.

“We want to make sure that when we get to the phase where the final, truly political, difficult issues are settled, we have the framework for the rest already down and prepared and planned,” said the UN envoy.

“This is the phasing …what will happen immediately, what will happen in two months.”

A package solution for finance

One key aspect of preparation relates to the economics of a solution.

“The IMF, the World Bank and the EU Commission are here constantly now. There is a big delegation almost every week looking at different economic aspects.

“They are working on issues like introduction of the euro to the north, banking sector, viability, debt pension obligations, all practical issues of an economy and all this work will be factored into a solution.”

As regards financing, Eide indicated that they were looking at a combination of options from the public and private sector.

“We are looking into a package solution that would involve two forms of international public support, plus international investment. And the two forms are a combination of grants or donations and guarantees that can help the foreign private investment.”

Guarantees on government bonds from highly-rated countries or institutions can help countries borrow at lower rates. The US, for example, has frequently guaranteed Israel’s bonds.

“The private investor would say I can take this risk because it’s not so high,” Eide explains.

http://in-cyprus.com/42141-2/

Stand up for federalism (The Cyprus Weekly, 7 February 2016)

By Esra Aygin

As negotiations to reunify Cyprus under a bi-zonal federation based on political equality reach a critical stage, there is little sense of ownership in either community for the concept of federalism.

While the Turkish Cypriots, guided by insecurities and fear, view federation not as equal and partnership but rather domination by Greek-Cypriots, the larger and more powerful Greek Cypriot community views federation as an unfair deal.

Such perceptions of federation have led Turkish Cypriots to seek as much power as possible for the constituent states and look up to Turkey for security.

Greek Cypriot politicians, on the other hand, including leader Nicos Anastasiades, frequently voice that a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation is a “painful compromise” reproducing the sense of dissatisfaction within the society.

In reality, federation is the way for peaceful coexistence, where Turkish and Greek Cypriots can enjoy the advantages of a united, stable, prosperous EU country, without one dominating the other; while at the same time, they have a degree of self-government and protection of their ethnic identities.

It is a successful means to handle differences and power struggles that are likely to occur between ethnic groups in systems where all the power is in the hands of a central government.

And like any other political system, a federation needs committed citizens to be able to survive.

Therefore, it is high time for both leaderships to lead all Cypriots into seeing a potential federation in a safe and positive light and developing a sense of ownership for it.

Professor Niyazi Kizilyurek, Faculty of Humanities dean at the University of Cyprus, argues that Cypriots need to see the prospect of federalism as a political virtue that has arisen on the basis of historical facts.

He said, throughout history, the larger Greek Cypriot community viewed numerical majority as political superiority and believed that it has the right to decide on the future of the island.

The Turkish Cypriot community, on the other hand, rejected being the minority and insisted it also has a say. “These opposing views coincided with the British divide-and-rule policy, and the question of ‘who has sovereignty’ turned into armed conflict in 1958,” says Kizilyurek.

“The two ethnic groups in Cyprus came into conflict not because of ethnic differences or hatred, but because of a difference in their political aims. ENOSIS and TAKSIM were fights over who was sovereign and who was a minority. They were fights of how the future was imagined and by whom it would be decided.”

Neither were Greek Cypriots able to become the sovereign power determining the future, nor wereTurkish Cypriots able to become a people with the right of self-determination.

Even when they claimed to establish a separate state, they were in fact unsuccessful.

“The failure of two historical processes on the island has led to the conclusion that federalism is the most ideal solution for Cyprus,” says Kizilyurek.

The latest round of negotiations is seen as the best and probably the last chance to find a federal solution in Cyprus.

But while creating a federation on the table, the leaders must start concentrating on creating federal citizens, who see a united federal Cyprus as a golden opportunity rather than a threat or a painful compromise.

http://in-cyprus.com/stand-up-for-federalism/

Akinci sure of world support (The Cyprus Weekly, 30 January 2016)

By Esra Aygin

Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci returned from Davos with heightened hopes for a solution, as the international community pledged to support reunification.

And Turkey signalled it is willing to discuss a security/guarantees formula that would appease both sides’ concerns.

In an unprecedented endeavour, the leaders – Akinci and Nicos Anastasiades – participated in the Davos summit, jointly appearing at a panel before global business and political leaders, declaring their commitment to solving the Cyprus problem and appealing for international support.

While in Davos, Akinci separately held bilateral meetings with US Vice President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister David Cameron and Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoglu, and discussed the financial aspect of a solution on the side-lines of the summit with a number of political and business leaders including the heads of financial institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

Akinci returned from Davos convinced that the international community, including the IMF, is committed to extend the much-needed financial support to Cyprus in the event of a solution, according to a source close to the Turkish Cypriot leader.

“We made it very clear that we cannot have the same disappointment we had at the time of the Annan Plan, regarding the financing of a solution,” the source said.

A donors’ conference held before the Annan Plan referenda just about raised $700 million. Despite the Turkish Cypriot side’s optimism, observers remain sceptical over the international community’s ability and willingness to foot the bill of a solution, which is estimated to be around $30 billion.

“The exact figure we will need upfront before the solution starts generating revenue will be clear after the details of the property regime and territorial adjustments have been finalised,” said the source. Akinci and Anastasiades have yet to deal with territory and security/guarantees.

Turkey, signalled in Davos and during AKEL leader Andros Kyprianou’s Istanbul visit – the first time in more than 40 years a Greek Cypriot politician was invited officially to Turkey – that it is willing to discuss other security/guarantee formulae that would be acceptable to both communities.

The Turkish Cypriot side expects Turkey’s opening to give encouragement to the Greek Cypriot side to be more flexible in negotiations over territory.

The Turkish Cypriot side wants to discuss the territory issue in an intensive manner outside of Cyprus, to avoid the issue from lingering on and feeding speculation.

“If we want to discuss the territory issue in a fast-paced and effective manner, we need to shut ourselves away somewhere abroad,” said the source. “This is a sensitive issue very much open to speculation.”

In what is presumably a starting position, the Turkish Cypriot side indicates that it cannot make the territory concessions it made in the Annan Plan.

Diplomatic sources, however, say that a final give-and-take between the sides will involve a rotating presidency and territory.

http://in-cyprus.com/akinci-sure-of-world-support/

Preparing for peace (The Cyprus Weekly, 24 January 2016)

By Esra Aygin

We very often in Cyprus make the mistake of confusing a settlement agreement with peace.

Whereas an agreement that puts an end to the division of Cyprus and reunifies the sides will be of vital importance, it will not automatically bring about peace.

To achieve peace, there is an urgent need for a committed and ongoing process of cultivating a culture of cooperation, reconciliation and coexistence.

The preparation for solution and the cultivation of such a culture should have started long ago, according to Professor Ahmet Sozen.

“The two leaders are making progress. But I see this as a progress towards a solution or a comprehensive agreement, rather than peace in Cyprus,” says Sozen.

“The two leaders are proceeding towards a solution, but unfortunately without adequately preparing the communities… Negotiations on the leadership level are, of course, very important. But they are not enough…The lack of preparation of two communities for a federation based on power-sharing and cooperation in Cyprus worries me.”

Statistics from around the world show that there is a failure rate of about 45% of peace agreements within five years. Dr. Jasmine-Kim Westendorf suggests that a lack of peace building to complement settlement agreements plays an important part in this failure.

“Although negotiating a settlement is paramount to a peace process… it is important to see agreements as just one part of a longer process, given their high rates of collapse,” writes Westendorf.

“An agreement is no more than a scrap of paper unless it is backed by ongoing efforts to support and consolidate peace.” Peacebuilding efforts and promotion of a culture of peace must be integrated into all fields of life at every level, from education for a culture of peace to incentives for economic cooperation, to be successful.

Some other factors seem to be common in determining whether a settlement agreement will be successful or not. Local ownership of the negotiation process and the settlement agreement is one of the most important factors, research indicates.

Separately, quick and effective implementation of the agreement, and a well-organised, structured and detailed transition period with concrete timeframes and steps reduces complications and reinforces the feeling of security, according to research.

Also, settlement agreements with detailed power-sharing, political, military, and territorial arrangements are more likely to succeed, whereas those that contain vague provisions for future political arrangements fail more often.

The prompt creation of effective, efficient, functional and accountable state institutions also seem to be of vital importance in creating a feeling of trust among citizens in the new state. The feeling of equality, fairness, social justice, and security, as well as respect for human rights and the rule of law, which emanate from such institutions, play an important role in maintaining support and trust in the peace process.

A common factor in determining the fate of settlements is economic development.

Fostering sustainable development, the eradication of poverty and inequalities, revenue-generation, and creation of stable environments for investment are important factors of peace building success.

http://in-cyprus.com/preparing-for-peace/

Water wars escalate (The Cyprus Weekly, 17 January 2016)

By Esra Aygin

The latest standoff between the Turkish Cypriot and Turkish authorities over the management of water reaching the island’s northern part from Turkey, through a trans-Mediterranean pipeline, could soon leave the north without water, money or ‘government’.

The disagreement, which has elevated into a full-blown crisis – with Turkish embassy in the north and the main coalition partner Republican Turkish Party CTP – exchanging harsh remarks – is likely to spell the end of the coalition and lead to early elections in the north as early as February, said a senior Turkish Cypriot official on condition of anonymity.

Within the framework of a state-of-the-art €500-million project, inaugurated in October, Turkey is to supply the north with 75 million cubic meters of drinking and irrigation water annually until 2040.

Turkey insists that the operating right of not only this water, but all water resources of the north, is transferred to a private company. CTP on the other hand, is refusing to leave municipalities out and rejects a private monopoly in the sector.

The water is now idle – flowing sometimes to the Panagra dam and sometimes into the sea for what officials call “technical reasons”.

The confrontation has interrupted a financial aid agreement between Turkey and the north, and the junior coalition partner National Unity Party UBP has indicated that it is not willing to stand by CTP in the prolonged confrontation.

The collapse of the grand coalition ‘government’ with 39 seats in the 50-seat ‘parliament’ at a time when the negotiations to solve the Cyprus problem have reached a sensitive stage would inevitably have an adverse impact.

Many had hoped that the controversial CTP-UBP coalition would minimise the voice of rejectionists of a solution and ensure social unity behind a future agreement.

“I don’t anticipate, think or want the coalition to collapse,” CTP leader Mehmet Ali Talat told the Cyprus Weekly, acknowledging however that this may happen.

“We want this issue to be resolved and we are open to further negotiations and new suggestions.”

The CTP party assembly voted down the latest proposal of Turkey which had allowed for Turkish Cypriot municipalities to get a 10% share from the revenue from water, which would be operated by a private international company selected through a tender.

CTP’s rejection prompted the Turkish Embassy in the north to make a harsh statement and prescribe that the “right address for the issue is not the party assembly but the council of ministers”.
“It is up to CTP to choose how it makes its decision,” responded Talat through his social media account.

Although not directly related, the quagmire has also deadlocked talks on a financial aid protocol between Turkey and the north, hindering the flow of money from Turkey leaving civil servants and pensioners without the traditional year-end bonus payments, and farmers and producers without subsidies.

“There is a very serious crisis between Turkey and the north,” said the official talking on condition of anonymity. “The standoff has affected cooperation and coordination over all other issues including the financial aid protocol.”

CTP finds itself in a very difficult position where it may have to give in to Turkey’s demands or risk not only financial stability but also political stability and a very important reunification process.

http://in-cyprus.com/water-wars-escalate/

Give-and-take time for negotiations (The Cyprus Weekly, 10 January 2016)

By Esra Aygin

Progress achieved in the negotiations to reunify Cyprus under a federal umbrella means the sides are just a stone’s throw away from the final give-and-take stage, according to a senior Turkish Cypriot source.

The final give-and-take will involve painful political compromises across all the topics of the Cyprus problem, but mainly governance, power sharing, property, territory, security and guarantees.

According to a Turkish Cypriot source close to the UN negotiations, the sides have come a long way in the very complicated and sensitive issue of property, which they have been discussing intensively for the last two months.

Only a few details remain and the outstanding differences between the sides’ positions are bridgeable, the source said.

The sides are scheduled to meet again on January 14 and 29 to continue and possibly conclude talks on property.

The overall picture is hopeful and encouraging, with the two sides having reached understanding on most of the substantial issues, the senior source said.

“The process has reached a stage where it is not the political differences, but rather the technical details such as the writing of federal laws and preparation of the Turkish Cypriot side to the EU, that will be taking most of the time and effort,” the source said.

Even the highly controversial issue of guarantees does not seem to be a matter of huge concern, with the sides remaining optimistic that a breakthrough is possible.

In a recent interview, government spokesman Nicos Christodoulides said he did not expect the issue of guarantees to be difficult to solve.

Echoing this optimism, the Turkish Cypriot source said: “In this era, where Turkey, Greece, Cyprus are all part of the same alliance, it should not be difficult to formulate a security arrangement that makes both sides feel safe. One thing is for certain: This process will definitely not collapse because of the issue of guarantees.”

The year 2016 is widely seen as the last chance for the unification of Cyprus under a federal umbrella -providing benefits not only to the island but also to the broader region by improving security and stability in the Eastern Mediterranean and opening the way for regional cooperation.

Assuming that the status quo in Cyprus will continue undisturbed amid all the volatility and tensions in the region is irrational and unrealistic.

The fact that energy companies exploring hydrocarbons in the Exclusive Economic Zone of Cyprus plan to resume drillings in the second half of 2016 or 2017 at the latest is another source of concern as this will most certainly prompt a harsh reaction from Turkey and spell an end for the negotiations.

All these factors highlight the urgency for a federal solution, and the earlier the better, as these risks will become more and more imminent with the passing of time, the source said.

“2016 will be the year that will determine whether Cyprus becomes a unified, federal EU state or whether it spirals into the unknown.”

http://in-cyprus.com/give-and-take-time-for-negotiations/

Turkey needs a Cyprus deal (The Cyprus Weekly, 12 December 2015)

By Esra Aygin

An increasingly unstable political climate in the region, radical power alignments and the worst refugee crisis since World War II have heightened Turkey’s importance, making it an indispensable geostrategic asset for the European Union.

In return for collaboration in addressing the refugee crisis and cooperation in energy, fight against terrorism, and diplomatic efforts to end the war in Syria, the EU has promised Turkey financial aid, visa-free travel by October 2016, and a renewed accession process.

The EU’s initiative is timely for an Ankara faced with criticism for its authoritarian rule, rights violations and split from the Western world.

It has staggered from one foreign policy failure to another; and is striving for a leading role in the Eastern Mediterranean. This renewed Turkish-EU relationship, which is solely based on converging interests,will help the settlement process in Cyprus, analysts say.

“The Turkey-EU convergence is more of an indecent sales agreement than a genuine effort to integrate Turkey into the bloc. “However, if we look at it from a totally practical perspective, the revival of the Turkish-EU relations is beneficial for Cyprus,” said International Relations Professor Ahmet Sozen.

“Turkey needs a success story that will compensate for all its failures and miscalculations. That success story is the EU, and the solution of the Cyprus problem will help it get there.”

The EU will hold an intergovernmental conference on December 14 to officially open Chapter 17 on economic and monetary policywith Turkey, and has committed to complete, in the first quarter of 2016, the preparatory work for the opening of five other accession chapters. However, to be able to fulfill its commitments to Turkey, the EU needs the approval of the Republic of Cyprus.

“Turkey recognises its significant leverage over the EU…but must still contend with the Cypriot government’s veto power over EU-Turkey accession talks,” Stratfor Intelligence said in a recent report. “Thus, the more progress Ankara makes in the negotiations over Cyprus, the more progress it will make in the accession talks.”

Diplomatic sources say that Turkey tells all its counterparts that it is ready to move forward with the Cyprus problem and makes all its calculations on the assumption that the Cyprus problem will be solved through a settlement in early 2016 and referenda in March.

“A strategic relationship with the EU is a strong incentive for Turkey and it is making efforts for a settlement in Cyprus,” said Sozen.

“However, if the Cyprus problem remains unresolved due to a factor other than Turkey and Turkey is not blamed for the failure, this would not constitute a big problem.” Sozen’s opinion was echoed by Turkey’s EU Minister Volkan Bozkir in a recent interview: “The paradigm of Turkish-EU relations has changed. The cards have been redealt,” Bozkir said.

“It has been seen that certain developments that trouble the EU cannot be overcome without Turkey… Even if there is a failure in Cyprus, it would not impede the momentum in our relations with the EU.

“In time, Cyprus will understand this, and if it doesn’t, the EU will persuade it to understand… I believe that the EU will pull its weight and take certain measures if Cyprus continues to be an obstacle in our relations.”

http://in-cyprus.com/turkey-needs-a-cyprus-deal/

Bizonality still a sticky question in the Cyprus talks (The Cyprus Weekly, 5 December 2015)

By Esra Aygin 

Turkey’s strong commitment to finding a solution to the Cyprus problem depends on securing the bizonality of a future federal state as defined in the United Nations Security Council Resolutions, Turkish sources have said.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu separately visited the northern part of Cyprus in the past week.  During their meetings with Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci and his negotiating team, both Cavusoglu and Davutoglu conveyed Turkey’s full backing for a speedy settlement to the Cyprus problem.

“The Republic of Turkey will not hesitate to take the necessary steps to reach a final solution in Cyprus,” Davutoglu said during a joint press conference following his meeting with Akinci.

Nevertheless, Turkey’s support comes with a high sensitivity towards the issue of bizonality, Turkish sources said.
Turkish Cypriots insist that they should have a clear majority of population and property ownership in the Turkish Cypriot constituent state as defined in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolutions.

In a 1990 report to the UNSC the then Secretary General Pérez de Cuéllar said, “Bizonality should be clearly brought out by the fact that each federated state will be administered by one community which will be firmly guaranteed a clear majority of the population and of the land ownership in its area”.

The UN Security Council subsequently stated that the solution should be bicommunal and bizonal in character. Bizonality was also reaffirmed by Security Council Resolutions 716, 750 and 774.  However, the Greek Cypriots do not interpret bizonality as a majority of population and property ownership, according to diplomats close to the process.

Although there is an understanding that Turkish Cypriots will de facto have a majority of population and property ownership in the Turkish Cypriot constituent state on day one, they object to setting this in stone in the agreement, according to the same sources.

http://in-cyprus.com/bizonality-still-a-sticky-question-in-the-cyprus-talks/

More progress achieved at talks (The Cyprus Weekly, 28 November 2015)

By Esra Aygin

Negotiations aimed at finding a comprehensive solution to the Cyprus problem by next May have reached a new “promising” level with substantial progress and convergences achieved on some of the most contentious issues.

In a series of intensive negotiations, Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci and Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Anastasiades met six times in November, during which they interdependently discussed issues of governance, property, territory, economy and European Union.

The sides have made a lot of progress and have reached important convergences on all of these topics, with governance, economy and EU more-or-less closed, sources close to the negotiations said.

The sides decided not to make any statements about the substance of the negotiations at the end of the series of six meetings on Wednesday, because the stage of serious give-and-take on important issues – mainly property and territory – continues.

There is a good chance that the property issue may be finalised by the end of this year or in early 2016, which makes the goal of finding a settlement before the parliamentary elections in May a very realistic one.

United Nations Secretary General’s Special Advisor on Cyprus, Espen Barth Eide announced at the end of the meeting on Wednesday, that the two leaders “have discussed a number of issues in most of the chapters interdependently and in great depth and have made further progress”.

“The leaders have achieved a better understanding of each other’s concerns. They now feel more hopeful and confident that the outstanding issues could be resolved in the near future in the course of their negotiations,” Eide added.

The atmosphere in the negotiations has been very positive during the intensive round of negotiations throughout November, and the sides feel that the way talks were structured during the month has been constructive.

But the issues being tackled at this stage are not easy and there still is work that needs to be done.  On his return from Wednesday’s meeting with Anastasiades, Akinci seemed confident about reaching a settlement by May.

“The intensive negotiations were productive and we are now at a more advanced stage compared to where we were at the beginning of November.

“Our target is to agree on the parameters of a comprehensive settlement before May. And this is not only our target,but also a shared one… We are talking about 47 years of negotiations. In the last five months, we made the progress that was not made in 47 years.”

The leaders are scheduled to meet three times in December – 4, 15 and 20. The negotiators will meet on a near-daily basis in order to prepare the leaders’ meetings.

Akinci and Anastasiades also agreed on the establishment of a ‘Technical Committee on Education,’ which will review existing research and good practices in education in Cyprus and abroad and undertake new relevant research on how education can contribute to conflict transformation, peace, reconciliation and the countering of prejudice and extremism.

“Cyprus needs a culture of peace and tolerance and cooperation in education will be an important part of cultivating this culture,” said Akinci.

http://in-cyprus.com/more-progress-achieved-at-talks/