A War of Two Worlds (The Cyprus Weekly, 24 April 2015)

By Esra Aygin

As a result of the mind-blowing, neck and neck election for the Turkish Cypriot leader last Sunday - which did not see any of the candidates get more than 50 per cent of the votes required to win - incumbent leader Derviş Eroğlu and veteran politician Mustafa Akıncı are set to stand a runoff voting on 26 April. Although Akıncı has been successful in securing significant support from various segments of the society, the second round this Sunday is not going to be a breeze for him.

The result of the race rightfully seen as one between the status-quo, non-solution and Turkification on the one side; and change, a federal solution and the survival of the Cypriot identity in the face of Turkish assimilation on the other, will largely be determined by the those, who voted for Kudret Özersay and the almost 40 per cent who did not go to polls in the first round. The ability of the left wing, pro-solution camp to stand in solidarity behind Akıncı will also be an important factor.

Last Sunday, 19 April, in the first round of elections, Eroğlu garnered 28.15 per cent of the votes edging out Akıncı, who got 26.94 per cent, by just over a percentage point. Current “parliament speaker” and Republican Turkish Party – United Forces CTP-BG candidate Sibel Siber came third with 22.53 per cent of the vote, marginally ahead of former chief negotiator Kudret Özersay. The turnout for the election was the lowest in Turkish Cypriot political history, with only 62.34 per cent of the eligible voters showing up to cast their ballots.

Although he came out as the winner, the first round was nothing but a success for Eroğlu. He received about half of the total potential votes of the National Unity Party UBP and the Democratic Party DP – the two major right wing parties backing him up. The popularity of the incumbent leader, who at the onset of the election period was confident that he would win in the first round, gradually decreased as a significant portion of his traditional voter base turned to Özersay. Akıncı, on the other hand, was able to triple the total potential votes of the two parties that supported him in the first round - the Socialist Democracy Party and United Cyprus Party BKP.

Immediately after the results of the first round became clear Sunday night, senior officials and opinion leaders from CTP-BG declared open and strong support for Akıncı on social media. In a very popular decision the following day, the party assembly of CTP-BG voted unanimously to give ‘active support’ to Akıncı. Siber and former Turkish Cypriot leader Talat have separately voiced support for Akıncı and called on the voters to cast their ballots in his favour.

An obvious winner of the election, Özersay, a young professor of international relations and the founder of the civil society initiative “Toparlanıyoruz” (‘we are pulling ourselves together’) movement, who entered the race back in October 2014 with no significant power, party or organization backing him up, has refrained from taking sides in the second round. Having secured a very mixed supporter base from all across the political spectrum, Özersay insisted that he would not voice support for either of the candidates despite the fact that he called for clean politics throughout his election campaign and criticized the corrupt and ineffective system in the north – largely a legacy of Eroğlu.

“I will go and cast my vote with free will and by listening to my conscience.  I will not channel votes or get involved in any kind of bargaining,” Özersay said in a press conference on Tuesday. However, in a move seen by some as a possible indication of his inclinations, Serkan Mesutoğlu, the current president of the ‘Toparlanıyoruz’ movement, announced that he would vote for Akıncı in the second round. ‘Toparlanıyoruz’ later made a press statement saying Mesutoğlu’s choice does not bind the movement.

Murat Gezici, the director of the Gezici Research Company, which made the most accurate predictions in the run-up to the first round, stated in an interview earlier this week that he stands behind his company’s findings in relation to the second round, which foresee an Akıncı victory by 60 per cent. “55 per cent of people who voted for Özersay and 95 per cent of the CTP-BG voters will vote for Akıncı in the second round,” said Gezici

To win, both Eroğlu and Akıncı will have to lure in the voters of Özersay as well as the absentees of the first round, who are believed mostly to be the disgruntled CTP-BG and UBP supporters. Although, Akıncı seems to be more advantageous in the second round, having secured the support of CTP-BG and a large segment of the civil society (a large number of trade unions and non-governmental organizations including the Famagusta Initiative, Turkish Cypriot Teachers Union KTÖS, Cyprus Turkish Civil Servants Trade Union KTAMS, Cyprus Turkish Physicians Union and the Cyprus EU Association have declared support for Akıncı) Eroğlu is working very hard to unite the right-wing and to win back the dissenters. His campaigners, on the other hand, are trying to dissuade the Republican Turkish Party CTP voters from supporting Akıncı by arguing that CTP has made a historic mistake by throwing its weight behind Akıncı because his victory would spell disaster for the future of the party.

It remains to be seen this Sunday whether the left wing, pro-solution camp within the Turkish Cypriot community will be able to join powers behind Akıncı to once again challenge the status-quo as it did in early 2000s, when it toppled the regime of late Denktaş. The sentiment is undeniably similar.

Election surprise in north (The Cyprus Weekly, 18 April 2015)

By Esra Aygin

As Turkish Cypriots are preparing to go to polls to elect a leader and the debate is getting ever the more heated, one thing there is broad consensus on is the fact that it is impossible to predict who will come out of the ballot box this Sunday.

The developments in an unprecedented elections period in the northern part of Cyprus over the last months have unfolded in such a way that current Turkish Cypriot leader Derviş Eroğlu, current “parliament speaker” Sibel Siber and veteran politician Mustafa Akıncı seem to have almost equal chances of coming out as the winner. And the star of independent candidate and former chief negotiator Kudret Özersay is shooting at such speeds that, he is already clearly one of the winners, no matter what the result is.

None of the candidates are expected to get more than 50 per cent of votes required to win the elections in the first round this Sunday. Next Sunday, 26 April, the second round of the elections will be held, where the two candidates with the most votes will run against each other. And it seems impossible to predict who those two will be.

One of the biggest surprises of the election period has been the very clear decline of the current Turkish Cypriot leader, Eroğlu. Despite the fact that the two major right wing parties, National Unity Party UBP and Serdar Denktaş’ Democratic Party DP officially declared support for Eroğlu, there is a significant number of people in both parties, who harshly oppose him mostly due to personal inter-party disputes. The perception at the onset of the process was that hardliner Eroğlu would win the election in the first round, and his campaigners were toying with the slogan, “55 per cent is the target.” Although he is still topping the polls, it is clear that Eroğlu is in for a very narrow race that will definitely not end in the first round. It is even being questioned whether or not he would be one of the two candidates, who get enough votes to go to the second round.

“Let alone winning in the first round, getting around 30 per cent and being able to go up to the second round will be perceived as a success for Eroğlu,” wrote Başaran Düzgün, the General Manager of the liberal, pro-solution Havadis newspaper on Tuesday.

The main destination of the right-wing voters despising Eroğlu is Özersay - the other big surprise of the election period. Özersay, a young professor of international relations and the leader of the civil society initiative “Toparlanıyoruz” (‘we are pulling ourselves together’) movement, entered the race back in October 2014 with no significant power, party or organization backing him up. Commentators and polls gave Özersay no more than 5 per cent of the ballots at the polls. However, his completely unforeseeable and swift rise in a matter of just six months, has now made him a huge challenge for his competitors with the possibility of garnering up to 20 percent of the votes. It would not be a surprise for those following the process closely, if Özersay wins enough votes to go on to the second round.

“Everyone thought he would remain at three-five per cent but support for Özersay increased unbelievably. There is a huge flow towards Özersay mainly from UBP and DP,” said Düzgün.

The main message of Özersay’s “Toparlanıyoruz” movement has been a call for clean politics and clean society. Özersay has consistently kept on the same line throughout his candidacy, criticizing the corrupt and ineffective system in the north and promising a reformation and cleanup, and an end to partisanship and nepotism.

On the negotiations front, he has highlighted his knowledge and experience stemming from the fact that he has been involved in the Cyprus talks for the last 12 years working with all three Turkish Cypriot leaders, late Rauf Denktaş, Mehmet Ali Talat, and Eroğlu. While promising to work for a federal solution, he has argued that Turkish Cypriots should not pin all their hopes on a solution but should focus on correcting every aspect of their life regardless of the conditions.  

Working with a team of volunteers, Özersay has been able to garner the support of circles across the political spectrum - people from left to right, from the extreme nationalist to the liberal pro-solution, from businessmen to Turkish settler groups, who are fed up with the system, the same politicians, undelivered promises, political parties and corruption.

The fact that the voting patterns of Turkish Cypriots this time around have almost nothing to do with party affiliations and allegiances makes it ever more impossible to predict the outcome of the elections. A significant part of the traditional voter base of UBP and DP are going mainly for Özersay, but also Siber - the candidate of the Republican Turkish Party – United Forces CTP – BG, and Akıncı - independent candidate backed by the Socialist Democracy Party and United Cyprus Party BKP. A significant part of the traditional supporters of CTP, on the other hand, have not been able to internalize Siber -who is not from the grassroots of CTP - are going for Akıncı. 

So, in probably the most interesting election in the Turkish Cypriot political history, it would be fair to say any result is possible on Sunday.

As Düzgün said, “These elections are taking place on a very slippery ground. We are trying to read the process through traditional analysis methods, which don’t work in this case. Nothing is as it was before.”

Turkish Cypriot election fever (The Cyprus Weekly, 4 April 2015)

By Esra Aygin

On Sunday April 19, some 177,000 Turkish Cypriots will go to polls to elect a leader, who will represent them in the international arena, and most importantly in the negotiations to solve the Cyprus problem, for the next five years.

Elections come at a time when Turkish Cypriots feel increasingly restless under strict austerity measures and religious and cultural intervention by Turkey; a new phase of negotiations is set to begin in what is widely believed to be the last chance to reunify the island under a federation; and tension surrounds the hydrocarbon exploration activities in the waters of Cyprus. The election results are highly unpredictable.

The elections are most certainly set to see a tight race between three candidates, current Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu, current ‘parliament speaker’ Sibel Siber and veteran politician Mustafa Akinci.

They have effectively divided the Turkish Cypriot community in two camps: Those who support the continuation of the status quo and the system in the north; and those who want to see a change in the spineless relations with Turkey, handling of internal issues and a chance for a solution in Cyprus.

Although controversial and conflicting, the polls that have been published so far show current hard-liner Turkish Cypriot leader Eroglu, 77, to be in the lead.

He is running independently in a bid to garner the support of right-wingers as a whole, which roughly make up 50% of the electorate.
However, although both of the major right-wing parties, National Unity Party UBP and Serdar Denktash’s Democratic Party DP lent support to Eroglu, there are a significant number of people on the right, who are openly against Eroglu mostly due to personal inter-party disputes. Polls show Eroglu to be roughly around the 30-35 % band.

Eroglu, who has been in politics since the 1970s and served as ‘prime minister’ for more than 15 years, uses nationalism as a main tool for his campaign.

He pledges a solution that would “defend the rights of Turkish Cypriots” and warns against a “solution at any cost”.

He especially finds support in rural areas, where the majority of the Turkish settlers live. His support base however, is hardly exclusively the settlers. He represents the continuation of the status quo and the system in the north, and is supported by many, who benefit from the system of the illicit distribution of wealth and public resources.

The polls contrast on who is currently second in the race, with some suggesting that current ‘parliament speaker’ Siber, who is the candidate of the Republican Turkish Party – United Forces CTP-BG – is behind Eroglu, while others show veteran politician Mustafa Akinci, who is running as an independent, in second place.

Siber, a well-known medical doctor and a newcomer in politics, has been a ‘member of parliament’ since 2009 and served as ‘prime minister’ for 2.5 months in an interim ‘government’ in 2013. During this brief period, she impressed many with her management skills.

While maintaining positive relations with Turkey, she took a number of brave decisions including the cancellation of a controversial tender to procure an anti-riot vehicle, revocation of an honorary “attaché of culture and tourism for TRNC” title given by the preceding administration to a Turkish actor famous for violent mafia roles, and abolished agreements to rent state-owned land in the Karpas region to a Turkish-Austrian consortium.

Not being from the grassroots of CTP has served both to her advantage and disadvantage. She has been able to rise above a worn-out CTP, which has not been able to meet expectations and garner the support of non-CTP voters and even right-wing voters, while at the same time, the CTP base found it difficult to accept her.

She campaigns for a federal solution in Cyprus and a fairer, better order for Turkish Cypriots. Polls show her and Akinci roughly at the 25-30 % band.

Akinci, who entered politics in 1976 when he was elected mayor of Nicosia Turkish Municipality and served in this post until 1990, is running as an independent candidate, but is backed by the Socialist Democracy Party and United Cyprus Party BKP. He is seen as the candidate who represents the survival of Turkish Cypriots in the face of Turkish assimilation.

When he was ‘deputy prime minister’ in 2000, he got into a big row with the Turkish general in Cyprus over transferring the control of Turkish Cypriot police from the Turkish military to civilian authority.

His coalition ‘government’ collapsed as a result. Akinci promises to work for a federal solution in Cyprus and a more balanced relationship with Turkey based on mutual respect. Nevertheless, during his campaign, he has been very careful not to antagonise Turkey.

One of the rare certainties of the upcoming elections in the north is that none of the candidates will get more than 50% of the vote required to win the elections in the first round.

The second round of the elections will be held on the following Sunday, April 26, where the two candidates with the most votes – probably Eroglu and Akinci or Eroglu and Siber will run against each other.

The results of the second round are also highly uncertain, with a lot depending on whether Eroglu will be able to secure the support of the right-wing and whether the left or pro-solution voters will unite behind either Siber or Akinci against Eroglu.