Article - Was constitutional referendum a rehearsal of possible settlement referendum? (Published in Greek in 24h on 13 July 2014)

Was constitutional referendum a rehearsal of possible settlement referendum?

On 29 June, the Republican Turkish Party (CTP) did not only suffer a huge wound by losing the three biggest cities – Nicosia, Famagusta and Kyrenia - in the local elections, but was also shaken by the rejection of a set of constitutional amendments that it advocated strongly. The amendments were submitted to a referendum on the same day as the local elections.  

The constitution of the “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus,” adopted in 1985, is a shameful copy of the 1982 constitution of Turkey – the product of the 12 September 1982 military coup. For the first time in almost 30 years, some changes – albeit small – were made through the efforts of mainly the CTP deputies and adopted unanimously by all the parties in parliament – the bigger party of the ruling coalition CTP, the smaller party of the ruling coalition right-wing Democratic Party (DP), main opposition right wing National Unity Party (UBP), and the left-wing Social Democracy Party (TDP).

The proposed amendments had initially called for the lifting of temporary article 10 - which is the legal basis for the Turkish Cypriot police to be under the control of the Turkish military, and the introduction of conscientious objection. However, CTP could not get the required support in parliament to go ahead with these changes and therefore, limited the amendments to some 20 articles. 

Although the amendments, which among others, introduced children’s rights, limited the immunity of politicians, improved fundamental rights, and lifted the political ban on civil servants, were adopted unanimously by all the parties in parliament, they were rejected by 65% in the referendum.  

Two major factors seem to have played an important role in the rejection of the constitutional amendments. First is the radical approach of the left-wing parties and non-governmental organisations, which criticised the amendments for being “cosmetic” and not touching on the substantial provisions – such as the temporary article 10.

The second, and the scarier, is the undercover, ear-to-ear no-campaign led by hardliner Turkish Cypriot leader Derviş Eroğlu, who has a significant influence on both UBP and DP, and the supporters of his ideology.

Although the more optimistic in the northern part of Cyprus would argue that the ‘no’ vote is the victory of the radical left, a strong message of rejection of the status quo and the 1985 constitution, I fear that this referendum was a rehearsal of the nationalist guardians of the status quo, to test the grounds. And I fear very much that this method of undercover campaigning against a unanimously adopted text, tested and proven to be successful, can be put to work during a possible referendum for a federal settlement in Cyprus.

Those, against the reunification of Cyprus through a federal solution know now that giving approval to a settlement text does not necessarily lead to a ‘yes’ vote in the referendum.

Article - CTP receives major blow in local elections (Published in Greek in 24h on 6 July, 2014)

CTP receives major blow in local elections

Last Sunday’s municipal elections dealt a huge blow to the Republican Turkish Party (CTP), the biggest pro-solution party in the northern part of Cyprus, and the outcome is expected to have major implications on April’s elections for the Turkish Cypriot leader. CTP, which held the municipalities in the three biggest cities in the northern part of Cyprus, lost all three.

A successful outcome in municipal elections would have considerably strengthened CTP, and served as a strong indication of people’s inclinations for the ‘presidential elections.’ CTP would have most probably nominated former Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat, who has been open about his willingness to run again, and would had a good chance of coming out of the elections victorious.

However, to the amazement of many, CTP lost the ‘flagship’ Nicosia Turkish Municipality, as well as the Kyrenia and Famagusta Municipalities. The Kyrenia and Famagusta municipalities, which belonged to CTP for more than 15 years, were lost to candidates backed by hardliner Turkish Cypriot leader Derviş Eroğlu, and the right-wing National Unity Party (UBP) and the Democratic Party (DP).

Challenging times lie ahead of CTP officials not only because they will most probably be required to re-design their plans for the April elections in this new political atmosphere, but also because of the internal conflicts within the party. There are allegations that long-standing disagreements among party officials and the municipal candidates have grown into full-blown retaliation during the municipal elections and led to CTP’s defeat. Some party members are being accused of openly or secretly backing competing candidates. The party will also have to solve these internal conflicts, which were used very efficiently by the right-wing parties to defeat CTP, if it is to enter a healthy election period.

An important outcome of the local elections is the rise of veteran politician Mustafa Akıncı as a strong potential candidate for the ‘presidential elections’ after Social Democracy Party’s (TDP) Mehmet Harmancı won the Nicosia Turkish Municipality with almost 40 per cent of the votes. In the Turkish Cypriot political arena, a special importance has always been placed on who wins the Nicosia Turkish Municipality, with many arguing, often rightly so, that the Nicosia Turkish Municipality is a ‘flagship’ municipality and the party that wins it, has an advantage during the ensuing elections for the Turkish Cypriot leader.

It will be interesting to watch the developments in the run-up to the April elections.

Article - Municipal elections in the north (Published in Greek in 24h on 29 June 2014)

Municipal elections in the north

I don’t know if I am expected to write the word ‘municipal’ within quotation marks or insert the expression ‘so-called’ before it. I will do neither, because I refuse to submit to the official discourse of either side.

The status-quo in the northern part of Cyprus is unacceptable and the “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” is a secessionist entity deemed legally invalid by international law. However, any group of people living at a certain place for one reason or another, have basic needs of housing, infrastructure, water network, sewage etc. that have to be fulfilled by local administrations. And I don’t believe that not using quotation marks when writing about the local administrations or municipalities in the north would make the said entity there more legal or acceptable.

That point aside, as you are reading this article today, Turkish Cypriots are going to polls to elect the people who will run the local administrations in the northern part of Cyprus for the next four years. And it is widely believed that the municipal elections on 29 June will also serve as a strong indication for next year’s elections for the Turkish Cypriot leader. People’s political party preferences will demonstrate whether the majority is leaning more towards the pro-settlement, pro-unification left parties or the pro-status-quo right parties. This therefore, will be considered an early sign for the election for the Turkish Cypriot leader in April 2015 – due in less than 10 months.  

Besides the overall results of the municipal elections, a special importance is placed on who will win the Nicosia Turkish Municipality. Many argue that the Nicosia Turkish Municipality is a ‘flagship’ municipality and the party that wins it will have advantage during the ensuing elections for the Turkish Cypriot leader.

Whether by coincidence or not, this argument was validated by the two most recent elections. When Mehmet Ali Talat became the Turkish Cypriot leader with an unprecedented %56 of the votes in April 2005, the pro-solution left-wing Republican Turkish Party (CTP) was holding the Nicosia Turkish Municipality. However, the  ‘flagship’ Nicosia Turkish Municipality was lost to Serdar Denktas’ Democratic Party in 2006, and Mehmet Ali Talat lost the Turkish Cypriot leadership to hardliner Dervis Eroglu in the elections in 2010. 

There surely are other factors involved in the election of the Turkish Cypriot leader. However, today’s elections will no doubt serve as an indication of the general tendency of the people living in the northern part of Cyprus and play an important role in the political parties’ plans for the upcoming April 2015 election.