Survey shows some Turkish Cypriot flexibility over guarantees

Majority also still support federal solution

By Esra Aygin

Contrary to popular belief, the current guarantee system in Cyprus is not a sacred cow for Turkish Cypriots, a recent survey has shown.

The poll’s full findings, which were made available only to the Sunday Mail and gazeddakibris.com in the north, show that support for an alternative security system among the community is high, even though the poll also revealed that a significant proportion wrongly believe that the current guarantee system is about protecting Turkish Cypriots.

The survey also showed that most Turkish Cypriots still support a federal solution to the Cyprus problem and are not convinced by the debate over alternative solutions.

According to the survey by the Centre for Migration, Identity and Rights Studies (CMIRS) conducted in September among 500 people, 46.4 per cent of Turkish Cypriots believe that the “current guarantee system should continue unchanged”. But a significant proportion – 37 per cent – said that they view alternatives to the current guarantee system positively. Another 16.4 per cent stated that they do not have an opinion on the issue.

The issue of guarantees – one of the most intractable chapters of the negotiations – is a source of tension between Turkey and Turkish Cypriots. Turkey insists on maintaining the current guarantee mechanism in the event of a solution, while the Turkish Cypriot leadership has embraced a more flexible position, saying that a new model that makes both Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots feel safe and secure has to be developed.

In his latest visit to the northern part of Cyprus last month, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu stated that those “in the north, who say that guarantees are anachronistic are committing neglect and treason”.

“We are very saddened to see such types.”

His controversial comments angered many.

“He declared our people traitors, he exceeded the limits of diplomatic language,” Turkish Cypriot researcher Mete Hatay wrote on his social media account.

“He is giving the signals that they are going to further divide this half-land and create trojan horses.”

The CMIRS survey revealed that the significant support for alternative security models exists despite the widespread misperception about the current guarantee system. In response to the question “Which of the following statements reflect your understanding of guarantees?” 41.2 per cent responded: “Guarantees are about the security of Turkish Cypriots.”

Professor Niyazi Kizilyurek, Cyprus’ first Turkish Cypriot MEP, was quick to point out the mistake.

“It isn’t known that the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee is not directly related to the security of communities and individuals,” he wrote in Yeniduzen last month.

“The widespread opinion among the Turkish Cypriot community is that the Treaty of Guarantee and therefore the guarantorship of Turkey is about protecting Turkish Cypriots. This is not correct… There is no reference in the Treaty of Guarantee to the security of Turkish Cypriots.”

In fact, with the Treaty of Guarantee, Turkey, Greece and the United Kingdom undertook to guarantee the independence, territorial integrity and the constitutional order of the Republic of Cyprus and to prohibit any activity aimed at promoting the union of Cyprus with other states or partition of the island.

Support for federation

The CMIRS survey findings have also shown that the majority of Turkish Cypriots are not convinced by the discussions over alternatives to a federal solution. Almost 62 per cent of the participants stated that negotiations to find a federation should start immediately, while only 18.4 per cent said they supported negotiations to find an alternative solution. Some 13 per cent stated that negotiations should not start at all.

Turkish Cypriots under threat

The Turkish Cypriots’ existential relationship with Turkey was also part of the survey. Forty-six per cent of participants agreed with the statement that “the Turkish Cypriot identity and culture is under threat”. A little over 28 per cent neither agreed nor disagreed with the statement, while only 19 per cent said they disagreed. Over 25 per cent of the participants said they would move out of the northern part of Cyprus if they had the chance.

CMIRS director Mine Yucel underlined that research in the last ten years has constantly revealed a perception among Turkish Cypriots that they are going to cease to exist.

“Fact or not, this is the perception,” said Yucel, adding that the latest attacks by Turkish officials and nationals against Mustafa Akinci for his comments on Turkey’s Syria operations have increased support for the Turkish Cypriot leader.

“When we take into consideration this perception and the latest attacks, people feel the need to hold on to something to protect their identity. This has materialised in support for Mr Akinci.”

Yucel said their most recent survey, which was conducted after the tension with Turkey but has not yet been published, shows increased support for Akinci who was already leading the polls, further increased. Elections for the Turkish Cypriot community’s leadership will be held next April.

Varosha

The CMIRS survey also included questions about the current Turkish Cypriot coalition’s plans to open the fenced-off city of Varosha to settlement under Turkish Cypriot control. While 56 per cent of participants stated that this policy is positive, 33 per cent said it is negative. In response to a question on how possible this policy is, 45.8 per cent said it is possible to open Varosha under Turkish Cypriot control, while 43.8 per cent said it is not possible.

https://cyprus-mail.com/2019/10/27/survey-shows-some-turkish-cypriot-flexibility-over-guarantees/

Realism needed on the security issue

By Esra Aygin

June 23, 2017

Our approach to the contested and sensitive issue of security and guarantees will be decisive on whether the Cyprus problem is solved or not.

And rather than being discussed publicly in a realistic and rational manner, it is being treated as a mere slogan.

Those who say a solution is not possible unless it results in zero troops and zero guarantees in Cyprus, conveniently overlook the fact that there are currently some 40,000 Turkish troops on the island and that Turkey is a guarantor power of the Republic of Cyprus with unilateral intervention rights as set out in Article IV* of the Treaty of Guarantees.

The Treaty of Guarantees as well as the Treaty of Alliance is currently in place and in effect.

And contrary to what many would like to think, the troop presence in Cyprus and Turkey’s rights arising from the Treaty of Guarantees and Alliance are not a problem of the northern part of Cyprus only.

The south is not an insulated, protected area that will suddenly be exposed to Turkey only in the case of a solution.

We live under conditions of ceasefire on this island. There is not even a ceasefire agreement – just a de facto ceasefire. Even this fact should be enough to make any reasonable person demand an end to the status quo and a successful conclusion of the negotiations process.

The failed military coup of July 15 in Turkey should have been enough to bring all of us out on the streets demanding a solution. However, we continue to bury our heads in the sand and imagine we live in a protective bubble.

Nobody has been able to answer my question of what would have happened in Cyprus if the July 15 coup attempt had been successful. Nobody knows. Nobody can.

Nobody can know what would happen tomorrow, if there is another military coup, an escalation of tension in Turkey, the seas around Cyprus or the region involving Turkey.

The choice we are faced with is not one between a demilitarised Cyprus without troops, guarantees or intervention rights against a few thousand troops stationed in one location for a certain period of time, and restricted guarantees without unilateral intervention rights.

The choice is one between 40,000 troops in 146 locations, effective guarantees and unilateral intervention rights and a few thousand troops stationed in one location for a certain period of time and restricted guarantees without unilateral intervention rights in a united EU member state.

A war was lost in 1974.

No victor has ever picked up its marbles and left just like that. And our immediate neighbourhood is a daily example that there is no need for any troop presence or guarantee agreement for the powerful to intervene in against the weak.

And the smaller, more divided, more ‘de facto’ a country is, the more exposed it is to an outside threat.

Now, we can all get realistic and rational, seize this opportunity to unite this island, and embrace a united Cyprus with all its citizens. Or we can reject a solution and continue to shout “zero troops, zero guarantees”.

And ironically, ensure that 40,000 troops stay in Cyprus, and Turkey remains a guarantor power with unilateral intervention rights. The time to make the choice has arrived.

*Article IV of Treaty of Guarantees

In the event of a breach of the provisions of the present Treaty, Greece, Turkey and the United Kingdom undertake to consult together with respect to the representations or measures necessary to ensure observance of those provisions.

In so far as common or concerted action may not prove possible, each of the three guaranteeing Powers reserves the right to take action with the sole aim of re-establishing the state of affairs created by the present Treaty.

The will and courage to move forward for Cyprus

Esra Aygin

I had to write this piece without knowing what the outcome of the most critical ninth day of the Cyprus conference in Crans-Montana would be. I wrote it with full awareness however, that, regardless of the outcome, this day would mark a defining moment in the 50+ years of efforts to solve the Cyprus problem.

It is indeed “the moment of truth” as UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on his arrival to Crans-Montana yesterday for the second time in a week. We will either unite Cyprus now or let it drift into permanent division.

Over the last nine days, the Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot leaders have largely narrowed their differences on the essential elements of the problem – governance and power, sharing, property, territory, security and guarantees and the equivalent treatment of Turkish and Greece nationals. They have taken strong steps towards each other and have been able to take the discussions on a federal solution to the Cyprus problem to an unprecedented level. They know almost exactly how a final settlement will look like. All that is needed now is courage and will on the part of Mustafa Akinci and Nicos Anastasiades to take that final step and make history.

A bi-zonal, bi-communal federation based on the political equality of Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots may not be the ideal solution for many. But it is the only mutually acceptable solution for the two communities and therefore, the only way forward towards peace in Cyprus. A united, federal Cyprus, whereby democratic principles, human rights and fundamental freedoms are safeguarded, will be stronger, safer and wealthier. The other choice is the continuation and worsening of the status quo, conditions of ceasefire, and increased uncertainty, instability and tensions.

“The important thing is to correctly assess what is possible and what is not possible under the given conditions,” wrote Professor Niyazi Kizilyurek earlier this week in a column that carried the title: “The Best Solution is the Most Possible Solution. “Rejecting ‘the most possible’ with the assertion of ‘rightfulness’ has resulted in many failures in the political arena,” he highlighted. “This is why political actors should take into account the given conditions and the balance of powers rather than chasing universal or ethical rightfulness… At the basis of the Cyprus disagreement lie the wrong and unrealistic calculations by political actors. A unity (federation) based on the equality of two communities is the most realistic possibility under the given conditions. Trying to water this down… or distorting it, is being unaware of the recent history of Cyprus or the current conditions.”

I hope that realism and reason will win over shortsighted political agendas or fears half a century on. I hope that we will seize this last opportunity to unite Cyprus, and embrace a united island with all its citizens. I hope that we will refuse to hold our future hostage to our past. And I hope we will give our children the chance to improve a united Cyprus in the future according to the conditions of their times, rather than burdening them with the division of generations long-gone.

The beginning of the end-game

By Esra Aygin

A Conference on Cyprus expected to seal the deal on the thorniest security and guarantees issue will most probably be the beginning - not the end – of a negotiation process on the issue. 

Less than 20 days from the conference seen as ‘critical’ for the fate of the unification negotiations, there still is no formal discussion or concrete preparation between neither the Turkish and Greek Cypriot sides nor the guarantors on a security formula for a future federal Cyprus.

“The expectation and hope was that the sides would seal the deal on the security and guarantees issue in Geneva,” said a Turkish Cypriot source. “However, there is no serious preparation or dialogue on the part of the sides. So 12 January will mark the beginning of discussion and negotiation.”

Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci and Greek Cypriot leader Nicos Anastasiades, who have been negotiating to find a comprehensive solution to the Cyprus problem for the last 19 months, are scheduled to meet in Geneva on January 9 to resolve outstanding issues of governance and power sharing, property, economy, EU and territory. On January 12, guarantor states Turkey, Greece and the United Kingdom will join the sides in an effort to find a mutually acceptable compromise on the contentious chapter of security and guarantees.

The Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot sides as well as Turkey and Greece were expected to prepare in the run up to the conference to lay the groundwork for an agreement on the issue. However, this has not been the case so far.

High-level preparatory meetings between Turkey and Greece on the security and guarantees issue and the planned meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras have still not been scheduled.

“It is quite possible for the parties go back to their respective countries and continue dialogue on security and guarantees, and then meet in Geneva again at some point in the future,” a diplomatic source close to the negotiations said. “So this is not a one-time meeting but rather a process.”

The ideal scenario would have been for the Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot leaders to hold discussions on security and guarantees ahead of Geneva and go to the conference with a common position on behalf of Cyprus. The concern is that security and guarantees in Cyprus could become only a small part of much broader negotiations between Turkey and Greece on all Conference on Cyprus could become the scene for negotiations between Turkey and Greece on all other disagreements they have like the Aegean islands or the continental shelf.

“It would be a good strategy if now Cypriots are able to think as Cypriots – one Cyprus – and don’t be hostage to other countries’ interests that are separate from Cyprus,” UN Secretary General’s Special Advisor on Cyprus Espen Barth Eide had told the Cyprus Weekly in an interview earlier this month.

http://in-cyprus.com/the-beginning-of-the-end-game/

Cyprus at loggerheads over conference on security

Esra Aygin

Less than a month from a critical conference expected to determine the fate of Cyprus negotiations, disagreement over participation is dominating the agenda of Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots.

The Turkish Cypriot side says that the conference on 12 January in Geneva should include – in addition to the Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot sides – the guarantor states and the European Union.

The Greek Cypriot side, however, is insisting that the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council – the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom and France – as well as the Republic of Cyprus, are also present.

The sides are scheduled to meet in Geneva on January 9 to resolve outstanding issues of governance and power sharing, property, economy, EU and territory.

On January 12, guarantor states Turkey, Greece and the UK will join the sides in an effort to seal a deal on the contentious chapter of security and guarantees.

The demand to include the P5 “came out of nowhere”, a Turkish Cypriot source said.

“There is no such precedent. Never during 50 years of Cyprus negotiations were the P5 ever involved. Involving them would make the Cyprus problem part of much bigger negotiations in the region by big powers.”

Political analysts believe that the Greek Cypriot side, with the demand to include the P5 in the conference, may be seeking to create some kind of a balance between a strong Turkey versus a weak Greece.

In an interview with the Cyprus Weekly last week, UN envoy Espen Barth Eide said the planned ‘Conference on Cyprus’ in Geneva had taken inspiration from the 2004 Burgenstock conference, and that the UN, together with the two sides, had envisaged the participants to be the guarantor powers and the EU.

As for the participation of the P5, Eide was clear that the Security Council had a role to play not at the conference, but right after, when the outcome would be presented to it.

There is a need for consensus between the Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots for the UN to be able to extend invitations to any potential participant.

While the debate on participation continues, chief negotiators Ozdil Nami and Andreas Mavroyiannis are meeting frequently in a bid to reach as many convergences as possible ahead of the Geneva conference in mainly the first four chapters.

Despite public statements, talks have not been progressing well with the Turkish Cypriot side accusing the Greek Cypriot side with tabling new positions on agreed issues, and the latter accusing the Turkish Cypriot side with being uncompromising.

As a number of internal and external factors will increasingly complicate efforts to solve the Cyprus problem in 2017, there is an urgent need for the Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot leaders to focus on the substance of negotiations rather than procedure, and reach a compromise on the issues of importance before it’s too late.

http://in-cyprus.com/cyprus-at-loggerheads-over-conference-at-security/

UN to broker Security - Interview with UNSG's Special Advisor in Cyprus Espen Barth Eide

By Esra Aygin

The UN expects to play a different role when it comes to overcoming the final hurdle of the Cyprus problem, acting more as the broker between the various players on the thorny issues of security and guarantees.

“I sense that UN’s role and my role as the representative of the Secretary-General is a different kind of role in the sixth chapter,” the UN Special Adviser Espen Barth Eide told the Cyprus Weekly in an interview.

This would be a break with the Cypriot-owned process to date, where the UN is designated as a ‘facilitator’, rather than a mediator or arbitrator, and leaders Nicos Anastasiades and Mustafa Akinci are very much in control.

“In the five chapters, we are merely custodians and facilitators of a process that Cypriots solved. Here there is a bigger thing going on where, frankly, there is a need for an impartial player,” he said.

The change in approach is prompted by a recognition that other players will have different interests from either Greek or Turkish Cypriots.

“We all have to understand that, for Anastasiades and Akinci and me, we want to focus on Cyprus and we want to do what’s best for the Cypriots. The other players hopefully have some concern for the Cypriots, but they are also thinking about their other interests,” Eide said.

‘Concrete ideas’
The UN envoy hinted at new approaches to security that have not been considered before.

“You can either look for a middle ground, but you can also think outside the box. … Let’s find something that nobody thought about yet,” he said.

“I have concrete ideas, but I am not going to tell them to you because they are very confidential and only shared with the players,” he added.

Eide said he would like to see the leaders discussing the issue of security more.

“It would be helpful if we could also have a Cypriot dialogue on these things (security and guarantees) –  not unrelated to what is happening out there, but some energy coming out of Cyprus,” he said.

“Because the closeness, the trust and friendly relationship, but also the understanding the two leaders have developed, of course, is more here, and is not replicated between all other players.”

Don’t be a hostage
Eide said that the most difficult parts pertaining to Cyprus only, to be solved by Cypriots, are “behind us, in my view”.

“It would be a good strategy if, now, Cypriots are able to think as Cypriots – one Cyprus,” he said.
“And don’t be hostage to anybody else. And that’s actually a shared interest.”

Property costs lower
The UN Special Adviser said the World Bank now “has the numbers” on property and will validate them with the two sides before they become public. He said financing was not “keeping him awake at night”.

“What I can say is that they are significantly lower than a lot of the numbers that have been flying around, and the financeability is probably higher than what people think.”

http://in-cyprus.com/un-to-broker-security/