Local elections in north jolt leadership

By Esra Aygin

January 8, 2023

‘The ruling coalition has offended Turkish Cypriot voters’

Mehmet Harmanci

Local elections in the northern part of Cyprus, branded as a competition between the “pro-Turkey and the pro-Europe,” and “pro-sovereignty and the pro-federal solution” by the Turkish Cypriot leader himself, have resulted in an unexpected failure for the ruling right-wing coalition.

Support for coalition parties National Unity Party UBP, Democratic Party DP, and Rebirth Party YDP fell compared to the January 2022 general elections, while opposition Republican Turkish Party CTP, and Social Democracy Party TDP, which did not gain any seats in the 2022 elections, saw their votes increase. CTP was the party that won most municipalities, with its candidates succeeding in seven of the 18 municipalities.

Most importantly, the UBP-DP-YDP coalition lost the two big cities – Kyrenia and Famagusta to left-wing CTP and failed to conquer Nicosia from mayor Mehmet Harmanci of TDP.

“Voters have jolted the ones in power,” was the headline of daily Bugun Kıbris on the day after the local elections on 25 December.

“The people have given a warning to the government,” admitted coalition partner YDP’s Erhan Arikli.

Despite allegations of an intervention by Ankara that were never denied, it was especially significant that the ruling coalition lost Famagusta, where the fight for mayor was seen not as simply a local election but about Turkish control and the continuation of the opening of the fenced-off city of Varosha. CTP’s candidate Suleyman Ulucay won the elections in Famagusta with almost 50 per cent of the votes.

The ruling coalition also lost Kyrenia to CTP, with Murat Senkul winning the election with 34.3 per cent of the votes.

Despite the left’s victory in big cities, the ruling coalition and especially UBP was unrivalled in rural areas, bringing its overall vote slightly higher than the overall vote of CTP. The Karpas peninsula for example, where many of the Turkish-origin people live, has, with all its municipalities, gone under the control of UBP with these elections.

“It seems like UBP is standing with the citizenship policy and especially the votes of the Turkish-origin voters,” says journalist Cenk Mutluyakali. “It has offended the Cypriot voters… and died off in central areas.”

UBP’s overall votes decreased from 39.6 per cent in January 2022 to 35.8 percent, while CTP’s votes increased from 31.9 per cent to 35.4 per cent, pointing to a heavily polarised political terrain for the future.

Academician and international relations expert Ipek Borman argues that the current “existential crisis” of Turkish Cypriots played a major role in the setback of the pro-Ankara ruling coalition in big cities.

“As Turkish Cypriots, we find ourselves trying to hold on to life politically and socio-economically, under such conditions, where democracy has been destroyed,” says Borman. “The local elections took place under these circumstances. Therefore, many of us did not, or were not able to look at these elections solely from a municipal or local perspective. Whether we admit it or not, we are living in an existential state of mind and assessing everything in our political environment through this state of mind. Therefore, even local elections were viewed beyond a local perspective, through an existential perspective… In this sense, it is very important that in the three big cities, social democratic people with concerns about the future have won.”

Undoubtedly, the biggest victory was by Nicosia Turkish municipality mayor Harmanci, who won almost 50 per cent of the votes in Nicosia against the candidate of UBP and the strong candidate of CTP. Both of Harmanci’s competitors were deputies in the Turkish Cypriot assembly. Harmanci has become the only mayor after former Turkish Cypriot leader and Nicosia Turkish municipality mayor Mustafa Akinci, who could win the municipal elections for three consecutive terms.

Commentators agree that Harmanci’s major victory should also be seen not solely resulting from local factors, but as a response by the Turkish Cypriot people to the challenges that they are currently faced with.

“Nicosia election results are beyond just ‘local’” says Mutluyakali. “It is an uprising against the social, political, cultural oppression that we are faced with. A message of communal existence was given through Harmanci… The crowds, who want to unite with the world through a common future [with Greek Cypriots], put forward a political attitude. They stood up against rule by [Turkey’s] orders… In Nicosia, the voters called out AKP (Justice and Development Party) and Ankara’s meddling, oppression, interference in Nicosia.”

Many ordinary Turkish Cypriots, as well as opinion leaders and journalists took the social media after the Nicosia results were announced to declare Harmanci the new leader of the Turkish Cypriot community.

“A new leader is born,” tweeted online newspaper Ozgur Gazete.

“Harmanci is now a candidate to be the communal leader,” tweeted former senior judge Tacan Reynar. “The confidence he has secured in the capital city for all these years, calls him to step forward and lead the people.”

“Turkish Cypriots have been looking for a communal leader for some time now,” wrote journalist Hasan Yikici. “The support for Harmanci…must be seen as a serious demonstration of this quest. Mehmet Harmanci should, from now on, be seen as a candidate communal leader.”

https://cyprus-mail.com/2023/01/08/local-elections-in-north-jolt-leadership/

Article - Was constitutional referendum a rehearsal of possible settlement referendum? (Published in Greek in 24h on 13 July 2014)

Was constitutional referendum a rehearsal of possible settlement referendum?

On 29 June, the Republican Turkish Party (CTP) did not only suffer a huge wound by losing the three biggest cities – Nicosia, Famagusta and Kyrenia - in the local elections, but was also shaken by the rejection of a set of constitutional amendments that it advocated strongly. The amendments were submitted to a referendum on the same day as the local elections.  

The constitution of the “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus,” adopted in 1985, is a shameful copy of the 1982 constitution of Turkey – the product of the 12 September 1982 military coup. For the first time in almost 30 years, some changes – albeit small – were made through the efforts of mainly the CTP deputies and adopted unanimously by all the parties in parliament – the bigger party of the ruling coalition CTP, the smaller party of the ruling coalition right-wing Democratic Party (DP), main opposition right wing National Unity Party (UBP), and the left-wing Social Democracy Party (TDP).

The proposed amendments had initially called for the lifting of temporary article 10 - which is the legal basis for the Turkish Cypriot police to be under the control of the Turkish military, and the introduction of conscientious objection. However, CTP could not get the required support in parliament to go ahead with these changes and therefore, limited the amendments to some 20 articles. 

Although the amendments, which among others, introduced children’s rights, limited the immunity of politicians, improved fundamental rights, and lifted the political ban on civil servants, were adopted unanimously by all the parties in parliament, they were rejected by 65% in the referendum.  

Two major factors seem to have played an important role in the rejection of the constitutional amendments. First is the radical approach of the left-wing parties and non-governmental organisations, which criticised the amendments for being “cosmetic” and not touching on the substantial provisions – such as the temporary article 10.

The second, and the scarier, is the undercover, ear-to-ear no-campaign led by hardliner Turkish Cypriot leader Derviş Eroğlu, who has a significant influence on both UBP and DP, and the supporters of his ideology.

Although the more optimistic in the northern part of Cyprus would argue that the ‘no’ vote is the victory of the radical left, a strong message of rejection of the status quo and the 1985 constitution, I fear that this referendum was a rehearsal of the nationalist guardians of the status quo, to test the grounds. And I fear very much that this method of undercover campaigning against a unanimously adopted text, tested and proven to be successful, can be put to work during a possible referendum for a federal settlement in Cyprus.

Those, against the reunification of Cyprus through a federal solution know now that giving approval to a settlement text does not necessarily lead to a ‘yes’ vote in the referendum.

Article - CTP receives major blow in local elections (Published in Greek in 24h on 6 July, 2014)

CTP receives major blow in local elections

Last Sunday’s municipal elections dealt a huge blow to the Republican Turkish Party (CTP), the biggest pro-solution party in the northern part of Cyprus, and the outcome is expected to have major implications on April’s elections for the Turkish Cypriot leader. CTP, which held the municipalities in the three biggest cities in the northern part of Cyprus, lost all three.

A successful outcome in municipal elections would have considerably strengthened CTP, and served as a strong indication of people’s inclinations for the ‘presidential elections.’ CTP would have most probably nominated former Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat, who has been open about his willingness to run again, and would had a good chance of coming out of the elections victorious.

However, to the amazement of many, CTP lost the ‘flagship’ Nicosia Turkish Municipality, as well as the Kyrenia and Famagusta Municipalities. The Kyrenia and Famagusta municipalities, which belonged to CTP for more than 15 years, were lost to candidates backed by hardliner Turkish Cypriot leader Derviş Eroğlu, and the right-wing National Unity Party (UBP) and the Democratic Party (DP).

Challenging times lie ahead of CTP officials not only because they will most probably be required to re-design their plans for the April elections in this new political atmosphere, but also because of the internal conflicts within the party. There are allegations that long-standing disagreements among party officials and the municipal candidates have grown into full-blown retaliation during the municipal elections and led to CTP’s defeat. Some party members are being accused of openly or secretly backing competing candidates. The party will also have to solve these internal conflicts, which were used very efficiently by the right-wing parties to defeat CTP, if it is to enter a healthy election period.

An important outcome of the local elections is the rise of veteran politician Mustafa Akıncı as a strong potential candidate for the ‘presidential elections’ after Social Democracy Party’s (TDP) Mehmet Harmancı won the Nicosia Turkish Municipality with almost 40 per cent of the votes. In the Turkish Cypriot political arena, a special importance has always been placed on who wins the Nicosia Turkish Municipality, with many arguing, often rightly so, that the Nicosia Turkish Municipality is a ‘flagship’ municipality and the party that wins it, has an advantage during the ensuing elections for the Turkish Cypriot leader.

It will be interesting to watch the developments in the run-up to the April elections.

Interview with the German Ambassador in Nicosia Dr. Gabriela Guellil (Published in Havadis Newspaper in Turkish on 14 April 2014)

Interview with the German Ambassador in Nicosia Dr. Gabriela Guellil

by Esra Aygin for Havadis Newspaper 

What does Germany think about the newly re-launched negotiations process in Cyprus?

Dr. Guellil: The division of Cyprus has endured too long. With our own history and Germany’s reunification in mind, the German government welcomes any tangible progress towards a comprehensive and viable settlement of the Cyprus problem. We consider the resumption of fully fledged settlement negotiations based on the 11 February Joint Declaration of the two community leaders with the aim to reunite Cyprus as an important step in this direction. We continue to support a settlement of the Cyprus problem within the UN framework, in accordance with relevant UN Security Council resolutions and in line with the principles on which the European Union is founded. It is important to maintain the momentum to produce further convergences. It is a difficult task, but not a mission impossible. Europe stands ready to play its part in supporting the ongoing negotiations under the auspices of the UN. It has to be underlined that the settlement of the Cyprus problem would be to the benefit of all Cypriots which is of particular importance at a time of economic stress and uncertainties. Young Cypriots need perspectives for a prosperous future, exploiting the islands potentials jointly. Therefore, any confidence building measures agreed by the two parties which could contribute decisively to creating a climate of mutual trust and give impetus to the negotiation process have to be supported.

It seems that the ‘stars are aligned’ with the international community having a heightened interest in a solution in Cyprus. Would you agree with this? Are you hopeful?

Dr. Guellil: After many unsuccessful efforts to bring about a settlement to the Cyprus problem, all hopes to achieve the reunification of the island were focussed on the Annan Plan in 2004, and again the hope was shattered. The international community has never lost its interest in the solution of the problem – the UN mission has never been converted into a permanent one. When the direct negotiations started dwindling away and were finally suspended from mid 2012 onwards, there seemed to have remained very limited enthusiasm to break the deadlock. However, behind the curtains, efforts to overcome the paralysis continued. Certainly, the US played a significant role there – on many occasions we could witness the American ambassador in Cyprus advocating the benefits of a solution the charm of creating a win-win situation, stressing economic challenges and opportunities through regional cooperation in particular in the area of hydrocarbons. Turkey as well is playing a constructive role to support the negotiation process and it goes without saying that a settlement would open up this important market for Cyprus. It seems that recent positive developments - the resumption of direct negotiations early this year - have mobilized new hope in the international community. There is a role for Europe to play, there is a role for European countries to play. And there is European commitment. The new momentum must be kept alive and accelerated. Many questions remain, but the will to pull it through seems to be getting stronger and stronger.

There is a wide belief that this is the last chance for reunification in Cyprus. Do you believe this is true?

Dr. Guellil: A history of missed chances seems to be proving that there is always a possibility for a new start. However, with the time going by, did the probability to compensate losses and injustice of the past in a better way increase? The number of Cypriots who have never known a united country is growing year by year – Cypriots should have the chance to live a united future.

Do you believe that the hydrocarbon reserves and the financial crisis serve as motivations for a solution?

Dr. Guellil: Economy is a factor that counts – and energy resources are a powerful matchmaker. Certainly, the financial crisis that has hit Cyprus has resulted in a rising awareness that creative thinking “out of the box” is needed. The unprecedented crisis can therefore contribute to open the minds, to consider formats of cooperation in order to accelerate the exploration of hydrocarbons that so far were no-go areas. In that sense I perceive a very strong connection between the crisis, hydrocarbon reserves, economic recovery and the solution of the Cyprus problem.

What would be the future of Turkish and Greek Cypriots in the absence of a solution?

Dr. Guellil: I do believe that Cypriots are ready to compromise in order to find a settlement. They are aware of reality and they will chose the best option which is a common future in a united country. They know that the future will confront them with many uncertainties and troubles in the case of a continuation of the status quo. Almost 25 years after German reunification we are still in the process of “digesting” many of the consequences, of course, but when the Brandenburg Gate opened we wanted to go through and enjoy the end of separation. Anything else would have been far worse.