Survey shows some Turkish Cypriot flexibility over guarantees

Majority also still support federal solution

By Esra Aygin

Contrary to popular belief, the current guarantee system in Cyprus is not a sacred cow for Turkish Cypriots, a recent survey has shown.

The poll’s full findings, which were made available only to the Sunday Mail and gazeddakibris.com in the north, show that support for an alternative security system among the community is high, even though the poll also revealed that a significant proportion wrongly believe that the current guarantee system is about protecting Turkish Cypriots.

The survey also showed that most Turkish Cypriots still support a federal solution to the Cyprus problem and are not convinced by the debate over alternative solutions.

According to the survey by the Centre for Migration, Identity and Rights Studies (CMIRS) conducted in September among 500 people, 46.4 per cent of Turkish Cypriots believe that the “current guarantee system should continue unchanged”. But a significant proportion – 37 per cent – said that they view alternatives to the current guarantee system positively. Another 16.4 per cent stated that they do not have an opinion on the issue.

The issue of guarantees – one of the most intractable chapters of the negotiations – is a source of tension between Turkey and Turkish Cypriots. Turkey insists on maintaining the current guarantee mechanism in the event of a solution, while the Turkish Cypriot leadership has embraced a more flexible position, saying that a new model that makes both Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots feel safe and secure has to be developed.

In his latest visit to the northern part of Cyprus last month, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu stated that those “in the north, who say that guarantees are anachronistic are committing neglect and treason”.

“We are very saddened to see such types.”

His controversial comments angered many.

“He declared our people traitors, he exceeded the limits of diplomatic language,” Turkish Cypriot researcher Mete Hatay wrote on his social media account.

“He is giving the signals that they are going to further divide this half-land and create trojan horses.”

The CMIRS survey revealed that the significant support for alternative security models exists despite the widespread misperception about the current guarantee system. In response to the question “Which of the following statements reflect your understanding of guarantees?” 41.2 per cent responded: “Guarantees are about the security of Turkish Cypriots.”

Professor Niyazi Kizilyurek, Cyprus’ first Turkish Cypriot MEP, was quick to point out the mistake.

“It isn’t known that the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee is not directly related to the security of communities and individuals,” he wrote in Yeniduzen last month.

“The widespread opinion among the Turkish Cypriot community is that the Treaty of Guarantee and therefore the guarantorship of Turkey is about protecting Turkish Cypriots. This is not correct… There is no reference in the Treaty of Guarantee to the security of Turkish Cypriots.”

In fact, with the Treaty of Guarantee, Turkey, Greece and the United Kingdom undertook to guarantee the independence, territorial integrity and the constitutional order of the Republic of Cyprus and to prohibit any activity aimed at promoting the union of Cyprus with other states or partition of the island.

Support for federation

The CMIRS survey findings have also shown that the majority of Turkish Cypriots are not convinced by the discussions over alternatives to a federal solution. Almost 62 per cent of the participants stated that negotiations to find a federation should start immediately, while only 18.4 per cent said they supported negotiations to find an alternative solution. Some 13 per cent stated that negotiations should not start at all.

Turkish Cypriots under threat

The Turkish Cypriots’ existential relationship with Turkey was also part of the survey. Forty-six per cent of participants agreed with the statement that “the Turkish Cypriot identity and culture is under threat”. A little over 28 per cent neither agreed nor disagreed with the statement, while only 19 per cent said they disagreed. Over 25 per cent of the participants said they would move out of the northern part of Cyprus if they had the chance.

CMIRS director Mine Yucel underlined that research in the last ten years has constantly revealed a perception among Turkish Cypriots that they are going to cease to exist.

“Fact or not, this is the perception,” said Yucel, adding that the latest attacks by Turkish officials and nationals against Mustafa Akinci for his comments on Turkey’s Syria operations have increased support for the Turkish Cypriot leader.

“When we take into consideration this perception and the latest attacks, people feel the need to hold on to something to protect their identity. This has materialised in support for Mr Akinci.”

Yucel said their most recent survey, which was conducted after the tension with Turkey but has not yet been published, shows increased support for Akinci who was already leading the polls, further increased. Elections for the Turkish Cypriot community’s leadership will be held next April.

Varosha

The CMIRS survey also included questions about the current Turkish Cypriot coalition’s plans to open the fenced-off city of Varosha to settlement under Turkish Cypriot control. While 56 per cent of participants stated that this policy is positive, 33 per cent said it is negative. In response to a question on how possible this policy is, 45.8 per cent said it is possible to open Varosha under Turkish Cypriot control, while 43.8 per cent said it is not possible.

https://cyprus-mail.com/2019/10/27/survey-shows-some-turkish-cypriot-flexibility-over-guarantees/

Higher-than-expected support for solution in World Bank survey

April 7, 2019

There has been a whopping 173 per cent increase in the number of cars crossing from the Greek Cypriot side to the Turkish Cypriot side since 2015

Some surprising results from the 1,000 Greek and Turkish Cypriots asked about federation, land, troops, guarantees and contact with the other side

By Esra Aygin

An EU financed World Bank survey has revealed that despite the prevailing negative atmosphere, the desire and support for a solution in Cyprus is very high among both Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot communities.

The survey also demonstrates that increased contact and information could boost support for a solution.

Predictably, a major concern for Turkish Cypriots was the strength of the constituent states in a federation while for Greek Cypriots it was land and property. More surprising was that the issue of guarantees and troops was not higher on the Greek Cypriot priority list.

According to “The pulse of reunification: Insights from Cyprus” conducted among a total of 1,000 individuals on both sides of the island in December 2018, 66 per cent of Greek Cypriots and 72 per cent of Turkish Cypriots desire a solution.

Responding to the question: “How are you most likely to vote in a possible referendum for a solution plan agreed between the leadership of the two communities?” 59 per cent of Turkish Cypriots and 48 per cent of Greek Cypriots said “yes”. The figures increased to 66 per cent and 64 per cent respectively when the undecided were excluded.

The survey has already been presented to the Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot negotiation teams, and was mentioned by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in his January report on Unficyp, but has only now been made available to some sections of the media.

Providing invaluable insight on the main concerns of the communities regarding reunification, the survey shows that the Turkish Cypriot community would prefer a federation with stronger constituent states. “Reassurance of autonomy/self-rule for each community under Federal system” ranked first in the Turkish Cypriot community’s priority list to support a solution. About 35 per cent of Turkish Cypriot respondents said this would increase their support for a solution, while this was a priority for only 15 per cent of Greek Cypriot respondents.

The main factor that would increase the Greek Cypriot community’s support for a solution was “Favourable terms on the land and properties issues”. Over 20 per cent of Greek Cypriot respondents said this was a priority, while this issue ranked last for the Turkish Cypriots with 14.7 per cent saying it would increase their support for a solution.

Despite popular perception, guarantees and troops ranked lower on the Greek Cypriot priority list. Some 14 per cent of Greek Cypriots said “Favourable terms on the issue of guarantor powers (Turkey/Greece)” and 11 per cent said “Favourable terms on presence of foreign troops in Cyprus” would increase their support for a solution.

The survey also revealed that the groups least likely to vote “yes” in a referendum within both the Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot communities are almost the same and are respectively: the financially vulnerable, youth, females and those living in rural areas.

Regions with the lowest percentage of “yes” votes are Kyrenia and Famagusta in the northern part of Cyprus, and Limassol and Famagusta in the southern part of Cyprus, according to the survey.  The survey also shows that the highest percentage of undecided Turkish Cypriots live in Morphou (19 per cent), which almost definitely will be included in territories returned to the Greek Cypriots in the event of a solution. The highest percentage of undecided Greek Cypriots live in Famagusta (25 per cent).

The survey also verified the transformative effect of contact between the two communities. According to the survey, which showed that three fourths of the total 1,000 respondents had contact with someone from the other community, positive and neutral contact were associated with a higher support for solution, while negative experiences did not negatively affect support. Turkish Cypriots engaged in recent contact with the Greek Cypriot community were 39 per cent more likely to vote “yes” in a referendum compared with those without recent contact, while Greek Cypriots engaged in recent contact with Turkish Cypriots were 32 per cent more likely to vote “yes” in a referendum.

Contact also made a dramatic difference for most of the groups within each community that are least likely to vote “yes” in a referendum. According to the survey, while 48.7 per cent of the financially vulnerable Turkish Cypriots without contact with Greek Cypriots would say “yes” in a referendum, 61 per cent of the financially vulnerable Turkish Cypriots with contact with Greek Cypriots would say “yes”. Only 37.2 per cent of financially vulnerable Greek Cypriots without contact with Turkish Cypriots would vote “yes,” while over 71.5 per cent of financially vulnerable Greek Cypriots with contact with Turkish Cypriots would vote “yes”.

The survey found that 48.8 per cent of Turkish Cypriot youth without contact with Greek Cypriots would vote “yes” in a referendum, while support for a “yes” vote among those with contact increased to 76.4 per cent. In the Greek Cypriot community, about 40 per cent of youth without contact with Turkish Cypriots would vote “yes”, while almost 60 per cent of youth with contact with Turkish Cypriots would vote “yes.”

Contact increased support for a “yes” vote among Turkish Cypriot females from 52.8 per cent to 76 per cent. For the Greek Cypriot females, support for a “yes” vote among those with contact with the Turkish Cypriots only increased by about 2.2 percentage points compared with those without contact.

According to the report, which also includes comparative data from recent years, there has been a whopping 173 per cent increase in the number of cars crossing from the Greek Cypriot side to the Turkish Cypriot side since 2015. The increase in the number of cars crossing from the Turkish Cypriot side to the Greek Cypriot side in the same period was 22 per cent. The report includes that Greek Cypriots spent 15.4 million euros in the north, while Turkish Cypriots spent 17.6 million euros in the south in 2018.

The survey also showed that the willingness of respondents from both communities to vote “yes” in a referendum increased when they were informed. For example, when they were told that there is widespread support for a solution across both communities, the percentage of Turkish Cypriots, who would vote “yes” in a referendum increased from 57.5 per cent to almost 60 per cent, while the percentage of Greek Cypriots increased from 44.8 per cent to over 50 per cent, which would be the required majority to pass a settlement in a referendum.

https://cyprus-mail.com/2019/04/07/higher-than-expected-support-for-solution-in-world-bank-survey/

Only 33% of Cypriots have contact with the other community

Esra Aygin

Despite the proven effectiveness of contact in overcoming lack of trust and reducing prejudice, a recent study has shown that contact between Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots still remains at low levels.

According to the study conducted by Associate Professors Deniz Yucel and Charis Psaltis, only 33% of Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots have contacts with the other community. Movement across the divide is possible since 2003 when the Turkish Cypriot authorities eased a decades-long travel ban.

In an effort to establish the importance of inter-communal contact on the reduction of prejudices and willingness to live together, the study was conducted among 504 Turkish Cypriots and 502 Greek Cypriots in April-September 2017. Out of the total 1006 Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots researched, only 330 people (189 Turkish Cypriots and 141 Greek Cypriots) reported regular contact.

“Prior research in Cyprus and abroad has shown that as contact increases, so does trust, while prejudice decreases,” said Sociologist Yucel and Social and Developmental Psychologist Psaltis. “In fact in a review of the relevant research on the two communities, the positive effect of contact in Cyprus, in both communities, is almost double the effect researchers find in other parts of the world. Usually the first reaction of the youth, who did not have the chance to meet members of the other community up to now, is “they are just like us!” Psaltis added.

For the purposes of the study, the Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot samples were divided into younger group (10 years and younger in 1974) and older group (10 years and older in 1974 - thus having some memories of cohabitation in the past). All samples were asked questions to assess the quantity and quality of contact they had with the other community, as well as levels of prejudice towards the other community and willingness to live together.

The highest contact was recorded among the Turkish Cypriot younger sample. 38.2% of the Turkish Cypriot younger sample said they had often or very often contact with Greek Cypriots. 27.9% of the Greek Cypriot younger sample reported having contact with the other community.

The Turkish Cypriot older sample reported the lowest quantity of contact. Only 17.2% of Turkish Cypriot older sample said they regularly talk to Greek Cypriots. 25.9% of Greek Cypriot older sample said they regularly talk to Turkish Cypriots.

When it comes to prejudice and the willingness to live together, the results showed that the Turkish Cypriot older sample had the highest prejudice towards Greek Cypriots and was also the least willing to live together. Only 20.1% of the Turkish Cypriot older sample said they were willing to live together with Greek Cypriots. The reason for this could be negative memories of cohabitation with Greek Cypriots before 1974 and reduced levels of contact with Greek Cypriots today, according to the researches. 

The Greek Cypriot older sample had the lowest prejudice towards the other community and was the most willing to live together. This might be due to the fact that "older Greek Cypriots experience lower levels of threats and anxiety compared to younger Greek Cypriots. Most importantly, there is a significant number of internally displaced people among older Greek Cypriots, who want to reach a solution, and they are therefore usually more pro-reconciliation and thus report more willingness to live together with the Turkish Cypriots" said Yucel and Psaltis.

Interestingly, the views of the younger sample in both communities were much closer together in rather moderate views of each other, and a rather overall neutral or undecided position on cohabitation. 45.2% of the Turkish Cypriot younger sample reported a willingness to live together, while 41.9% of the Greek Cypriot younger sample reported a willingness to live together.

“Given that our aim is to reunify the island there should certainly be more contact taking place, highlighted Psaltis. 

“In post-conflict societies, contact has to be regular and positive so that the mistrust and prejudices are overcome and integration is achieved,” said Sociologist Yucel.  “Moreover in contexts of total segregation, like Cyprus, even the importance of a few occasional meetings should not be underestimated as it still is an opportunity to deconstruct stereotypes. The main goal should therefore be to improve both the frequency and quality of contact for all groups in the population” Yucel added.

 

 

* The data collection in the Turkish Cypriot community was supported by the Grow Civic Programme, financed by the European Union. The data collection for the Greek Cypriot community was supported by the research funds of Charis Psaltis at the University of Cyprus.