Cypriots need to feel secure

By Esra Aygin

The Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot leaders have to go to Geneva with common positions on the security needs of all Cypriots, and put Cyprus and the needs of Cypriots first, Ahmet Sozen and Alexandros Lordos told the Cyprus Weekly in a joint interview.

Sozen and Lordos are the brains behind the Security Dialogue Project, preliminary findings of which were publicised earlier this month. The project is being directed by The Centre for Sustainable Peace and Democratic Development (SeeD),

“There is going to be a lot of pressure in Geneva to horse-trade Cyprus and the needs of Cyprus with the needs of other states,” Lordos said.

“The leaders will have to develop a very good understanding of what the security needs of Cypriots are. The conference should primarily be about solving a 50-year-old problem that has stopped Cyprus from moving forward.”

The ongoing research on security, which is one of the most difficult issues in the Cyprus negotiations, is aimed at better understanding the security needs of the Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot communities and developing alternative security arrangement options.

SECURITY IS A PRIORITY

“Numerous public opinion polls over the years showed us that security is a priority for the people,” said Sozen. “Not only does security rank highest in importance, but it’s also an issue where the two communities have very strong and opposed positions,” added Lordos.

These findings raised the alarm bells for the two that unless a formula is found that would make both sides feel secure, the talks would inevitably collapse on the security issue.

The preliminary research findings point to 62 threats, 35 of which are common for Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots. The common concerns are about the behaviour of extremists, intercommunal tension, whether the settlement agreement will be implemented, and whether the government will be functional and fair.

However, the implementation, fairness and functionality concerns are different on each side. Turkish Cypriots for instance, are more worried that power-sharing arrangements will not be implemented; while Greek Cypriots are concerned that territorial adjustments or troop withdrawal will not happen.

PRIMARY CONCERNS

A primary concern for Turkish Cypriots was found to be access to justice. “They ask, ‘Will the Greek Cypriot police, or legal system be fair? Will I have justice?’” said Sozen. “This concern is a direct result of certain incidents the Turkish Cypriots experienced, where the perpetrators went unpunished.”

At the political level, Turkish Cypriots are concerned that they will be marginalised in federal institutions and from decision-making mechanisms.

One of the main Greek Cypriot concerns, according to the research, is that the settlement will function under the shadow of Turkey. Turkey will either not implement the solution or it will interfere in the affairs of the federal government.

The Greek Cypriot threat scenario goes a step further and says that the problems in the government will foster tension and fighting among the extremists – which will lead to an intervention by Turkey.

At the base of all these concerns is mistrust, according to Sozen and Lordos. “Greek Cypriots don’t trust Turkey and Turkish Cypriots don’t trust Greek Cypriots,” Sozen said.

“And, from a security perspective, mistrust equals security threat,” added Lordos. “The research so far shows that both sides are projecting the fears of the past forward into the future and are projecting their own fears on the federal government.”

PREVENTIVE REMEDIES

The most important preventive remedies that the researchers have come up with have to do with creating credible, effective and just institutions – from public to security and justice – that do not display any kind of communal bias – that are ethnically blind, Sozen and Lordos argue.

Intercommunal, integrated army and police forces would also be very important according to the research directors, who talked about a multi-communal federal police where the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot officers work as one team, and some mixed units at the constituent state level.

Other preventive institutions recommended by the researchers are:

• A ministry of social cohesion to make sure that there are coherent reconciliation policies island-wide
• A group of international civilians embedded at the local community level to mediate or address tensions early on before they spark
• A council of unity and cooperation bringing together an age-and gender-balanced experienced group to step in to advise the federal presidency, federal parliament and the constituent state authorities at times of tension, and
• An early warning/early response system.

RAPID REACTION FORCE

The researchers stated that a federal rapid reaction force composed of Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot officers that could act as a guarantor is a reactive hard security idea that is worth testing.

“The point of rapid reaction forces is that they are better equipped to deal with today’s threats, which are asymmetric threats, civic threats like extremism and terrorism; also threats related to social disorder at the community level,” said Lordos.

“This force could be separately triggered by each constituent state… This would mean that the Turkish Cypriots could trigger this rapid reaction force if necessary. It would effectively intervene, but Greek Cypriots would not be afraid because it’s not a purely Turkish or Turkish Cypriot army.”

The researchers added that if the Turkish and Greek troops need to transitionally stay on the island, they could support the work of the federal rapid reaction force.

They are currently testing each of the remedies/recommendations in an island-wide public opinion poll, as well as getting expert advice on their functionality.

The opinion poll will be conducted among 3,000 people -1,500 in each community – which makes it the largest poll ever conducted in Cyprus.

The researchers hope to make their recommendations to all relevant sides before the conference in Geneva in January, based on the polls and expert advice.

http://in-cyprus.com/cypriots-need-to-feel-secure/

The beginning of the end-game

By Esra Aygin

A Conference on Cyprus expected to seal the deal on the thorniest security and guarantees issue will most probably be the beginning - not the end – of a negotiation process on the issue. 

Less than 20 days from the conference seen as ‘critical’ for the fate of the unification negotiations, there still is no formal discussion or concrete preparation between neither the Turkish and Greek Cypriot sides nor the guarantors on a security formula for a future federal Cyprus.

“The expectation and hope was that the sides would seal the deal on the security and guarantees issue in Geneva,” said a Turkish Cypriot source. “However, there is no serious preparation or dialogue on the part of the sides. So 12 January will mark the beginning of discussion and negotiation.”

Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci and Greek Cypriot leader Nicos Anastasiades, who have been negotiating to find a comprehensive solution to the Cyprus problem for the last 19 months, are scheduled to meet in Geneva on January 9 to resolve outstanding issues of governance and power sharing, property, economy, EU and territory. On January 12, guarantor states Turkey, Greece and the United Kingdom will join the sides in an effort to find a mutually acceptable compromise on the contentious chapter of security and guarantees.

The Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot sides as well as Turkey and Greece were expected to prepare in the run up to the conference to lay the groundwork for an agreement on the issue. However, this has not been the case so far.

High-level preparatory meetings between Turkey and Greece on the security and guarantees issue and the planned meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras have still not been scheduled.

“It is quite possible for the parties go back to their respective countries and continue dialogue on security and guarantees, and then meet in Geneva again at some point in the future,” a diplomatic source close to the negotiations said. “So this is not a one-time meeting but rather a process.”

The ideal scenario would have been for the Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot leaders to hold discussions on security and guarantees ahead of Geneva and go to the conference with a common position on behalf of Cyprus. The concern is that security and guarantees in Cyprus could become only a small part of much broader negotiations between Turkey and Greece on all Conference on Cyprus could become the scene for negotiations between Turkey and Greece on all other disagreements they have like the Aegean islands or the continental shelf.

“It would be a good strategy if now Cypriots are able to think as Cypriots – one Cyprus – and don’t be hostage to other countries’ interests that are separate from Cyprus,” UN Secretary General’s Special Advisor on Cyprus Espen Barth Eide had told the Cyprus Weekly in an interview earlier this month.

http://in-cyprus.com/the-beginning-of-the-end-game/

Eide: Individual right to property applies to current users as well as original owner (1 August 2015)

Interview with United Nations Secretary-General’s Special Advisor on Cyprus, Mr. Espen Barth Eide (30 July 2015)

Esra Aygin

Are we witnessing history?

Eide: We are witnessing a historic opportunity. And if you grasp this opportunity, you will make history. And I say you, because it is the Cypriots’ history and the Cypriots’ opportunity. Myself and my team are here to help, and we are happy to help because it’s very rewarding and interesting and fascinating to be in the middle of this. But at the end of the day, this is up to first the elected leaders of both communities and then the people of both sides. The historic decision will come in two phases. First, hopefully the decision by the two leaders to agree and announce and recommend a shared deal, and second, for all Cypriots to vote on whether they agree with this or not. And only then we know whether history has been made.

Your statements are always very positive and optimistic. Don’t you fear that you might be raising the expectations too much?

Eide: But it’s not only me, your leaders Mr. Anastasiades and Mr. Akinci are both making very positive statements. They are also doing things that have never been seen before. I think few people watching them would think this could not work. I think it’s important to convey that something very serious and real is going on. The reason for my optimism is the spirit and atmosphere of the talks. But of course, it is not a done deal. I cannot guarantee this will work. We have a long road ahead and many things to be done. But with the two leaders, the chemistry they have developed, their pragmatic problem-solving attitude, it’s the best opportunity in many many years. I am optimistic but I am also realistic. It is a window of opportunity. Windows, as you know, can be open as well as closed. So it’s important to use the opportunity while it remains open. And it’s a responsibility of all Cypriots. Don’t leave it all to the leaders. You need the leaders to lead, but you also need the people to engage and think about this…

And whether it remains open may not be decided only internally. You can never exclude some external shock. Not that I think of anything particular but it’s always a risk.

What led to the positive spirit? Is it more to do with the leaders, the timing, or the international conjuncture?

Eide: I think it’s many things and I think the stars are very well aligned, which is not necessarily by design. It may be by coincidence or luck. The international support is massive. You have a government in Turkey that clearly wants to solve this problem and it repeatedly states that at the highest level, including Erdogan…

At your meetings are you convinced that Turkey wants to solve this problem?

Eide: I strongly feel that Turkey wants to be a constructive partner in solving the Cyprus problem, which they would like to go away. So does Greece, so does the United Kingdom, so does the UN Security Council. I was there last week and I met with the Security Council together with Lisa Buttenheim. We presented the state of affairs and what we are doing. And every single member, 15 of the 15 took the floor and spoke very favourably and encouraged the leaders, and all of them said in different phrases that this window of opportunity must be grasped, and that they are there to help. As you know, the European Union is very supportive. So the international support is very strong. At the same time, the circumstances in the neighbourhood, the very dramatic situation at the Middle East I think, has led some Cypriots to think that maybe maintaining a non-solution is not very smart. In a situation where Syria is collapsing, where there are big problems in Iraq, major transformation is going on in many countries including Turkey, people think ‘is this a moment to remain divided or is this a moment to unite.’ Which is a security argument. But there is also an economic argument, which has become clearer. The economy of scale of one country is better than to have two economies. And particularly, with the hydrocarbons, it became clear that you may now, as Cypriots, be entering into an age where this will be a major feature of your economy. And it’s much better to deal with that together in cooperation without the geopolitical conflict looming over it. And I can add to that, that in my other job in the World Economic Forum, I can say many investors are looking with interest at Cyprus because it’s a perfect location for Middle Eastern and European business operations if it is unified. But today, the investors don’t want to come here because of the political problem. So by keeping this non-solution for decade after decade, you have generated an opportunity cost for yourself that you can get rid of. So that is the circumstance. Then you can add to that the election of Mustafa Akinci. Akinci came with a clear problem-solving attitude. Akinci and Anastasiades – the two Limassolians- agree that we have to grasp this opportunity. These two gentlemen from the same city have a shared vision for the future, which is very much why I dare to be as optimistic as I am. And yet one more thing: Over the last months I have seen something extremely positive, which is public recognition and genuine recognition of the suffering of the other side, which I think has been missing in Cyprus at least at the highest levels. The elected Turkish Cypriot leader is able to say that more Greek Cypriots suffered in 74 than we did. Somebody like Ioannis Kasoulides is saying the same thing about the 60s, which is I think absolutely imperative in order to overcome the historic grievances. Yes your grievances are true. And this goes for both sides. It is a shared experience. This is far more important than the specific details of the negotiations because this creates an atmosphere that is highly important.

There are various allegations about the property issue in the media. It is being reported that a property commission already exists and that only the property rights of the original owners will be recognised. What is going on in the property issue?

Eide: Some of the news are absolutely blatantly wrong. Completely wrong.

I will say very clearly that the property commission does not yet exist. There is an idea to set it up if there is a settlement. The property commission that the leaders declared is an idea about the future – a commission that will be set up if there is a solution. So that is absolutely wrong. And as the leaders just declared, there is an individual right to property and this right is recognised. That right applies to current users as well as the original owner. That right will be respected, but the remedy by which it will be respected will vary depending on circumstance. It could be reinstatement, it could be compensation it could be exchange. But it’s very important to understand that the right may be on both sides at the same time – it is not either one or the other. The important thing is, if somebody has a right, that right will be respected – the right that exists on both sides and of course all sides. The point is that, the right to property will be respected and remedies by which it will be respected will be according to certain criteria.

Will the envisioned property commission decide on those criteria?

Eide: There will be clear criteria and the criteria and principles will be included in the deal. The sides will of course negotiate the criteria. If somebody tells you the criteria have been decided on, they are wrong because we are not done. This is a lot of work. But it is possible to respect these rights without creating a conflict between individuals and that is what we are trying to achieve.

Another allegation over the last few days is that all settlers will be sent back to Turkey.

Eide: The issues of citizenship or who will be the citizen of the future Cyprus is still on the table and it is an issue with many dimensions to it. I cannot say anything more than this: What we are creating is a bi-communal, bi-zonal federation as stated in the 11 February joint declaration and based on the principles and the values of the European Union. Of course, an important part of these values deal with people - the human rights of the people. So any solution to people has to be in line with European principles of human rights.

Former Turkish Cypriot chief negotiator Kudret Ozersay criticized the increased role of EU in the negotiations process and stated this could jeopardise the bi-zonal, bi-communal character of the federation. How legitimate are these concerns?

Eide: Thank you for asking. I know Kudret Ozersay well. I see him as a friend. He is an experienced and knowledgeable person. But on this particular point, he is wrong. Bi-zonality and bi-communality is an overarching premise for the discussions we are having. That is very clear from the 11 February declaration, and it is known and accepted by the Turkish Cypriots, the Greek Cypriots and the UN. That is not going to be negotiated. There will be a solution that is bi-communal and bi-zonal. That is certain. So that is not correct. As the 11 February declaration also stipulates, all of this shall be in line with European values and principles. You don’t have to be either a bi-communal, bi-zonal federation or in line with European values and principles. These are not in conflict. The assumption that you are either European or a bi-communal, bi-zonal federation is not true. The two sides and the UN are now working so that bi-zonality and bi-communality is true not only on the day of settlement but in the long run.

And the European Commission is fine with this and they are on board?

Eide: Point one, yes. Point two, they are not negotiating.

But they would have to accommodate a solution…

Eide: Exactly. But the two sides, with the help of the UN, are working to find a settlement that fully respects all the elements in the 11 February declaration: bi-zonality, bi-communality and European values and principles. In order to do so, we have invited jointly the European Commission to help us. So Junker and Mogherini visits were all about how can the EU organize their support. But the negotiations are between the two sides and led by the UN, and we want to come up with a solution that is fully bi-zonal and bi-communal and that is also fully respecting the European principles. The point is that we want both. We don’t want to choose. Bi-zonality and bi-communality are characteristics of the new federation, which will be an EU state. It’s not that the European Commission is going to impose on us a deal. This is a deal sought by the Cypriot leaders, who want the deal to be in line with European values and principles but also fully in line with the principles on bi-zonality and bi-communality. Nobody in the Turkish Cypriot side is giving up on bi-zonality and bi-communality. But equally importantly, there is nobody on the Greek Cypriot side demanding that they give it up. So when I talk about a European solution, I mean not only an EU member state, but also a modern, democratic country that will respect individual rights and everybody will have the same privileges as other EU citizens.

I know you are in contact with all three guarantor powers. Do you have indications that it is possible to find a formula that would be acceptable to all sides and that would address everyone’s concerns?

Eide: Well I think so. But I cannot promise, because we are still in the early days. I have these contacts and I know the key players at these countries well. But we have to understand that this issue can only be solved at the late stage of the process. In order to change the troop presence or the guarantee status, you need to know that we are close to a settlement that both communities are comfortable with. Because I think the essence of a settlement is that Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots feel confident that this settlement is not only good for now, but is good in 50 years. Turkish Cypriots should feel that there is no reason to fear that the 1960s or that the 15^th of July 74 will repeat themselves. And Greek Cypriots should feel that they have no reason that the 20^th of July 1974 will repeat itself -  and not because of military stuff but because they believe in the new federation. The new state should give this feeling of security and trust. Turkish Cypriots should feel that their Turkish Cypriot identity will be protected by the federal state and the constituent states, and that the other community is not going to use this to rob them of certain rights. And the Greek Cypriots should feel that they are not under the shadow of a foreign troop presence that makes them uncomfortable. And if we achieve that – if the new state gives this feeling of security and trust to the citizens - which needs to be achieved inside the talks - then we can talk about security. When people ask me about security they think they will get the military answer. But the real feeling of security and trust is in the deal. People should feel secure not because of troops but because of the structure of the new state. That is the type of security that will lead the hard security to change.

And you have reasons to be optimistic that we may arrive at that point?

Eide: That is what I feel.

http://www.havadiskibris.com/Haberler/kibris/mulkiyette-haklar-esit/62462