Backdoor negotiations

September 3, 2016

By Esra Aygin

Turkey is willing to engage in backstage talks with Greece to discuss the thorny security and guarantees issue before it is formally taken up within the framework of Cyprus negotiations, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said.

Cavusoglu, who was on the island for the inauguration of a joint IT project between the northern part of Cyprus and Turkey, met with Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci and his team to discuss the progress in the Cyprus negotiations.

“There are difficult issues ahead,” said Cavusoglu in a joint press conference after the meeting.

“Some of these issues will have to be discussed in a five-party format.

“Nevertheless, we believe that it would be very helpful to already take up and exchange views on these decisions in an unofficial setting.”

Cavusoglu was referring to the security and guarantees issue, which needs an agreement between the three guarantor powers of Cyprus – Turkey, Greece and the United Kingdom – in order to be finalised.

The Turkish Foreign Minister added that they had already started an informal discussion on Cyprus with his Greek counterpart Nikos Kotzias.

In response to a question about guarantees, Cavusoglu reiterated that both the Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot sides need to feel safe and secure in the event of a solution.

“Of course, we have to understand and appease the concerns of the Turkish Cypriot people,” said Cavusoglu. “But if the two sides, the two people are to live in peace, then neither should have any concerns about security. We are not acting in a self-centered manner.”

Turkey is open to discussing every idea or proposal without drawing any red lines, said a Turkish source, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“Everything is on the table and Turkey is willing to take the solution process all the way to the end, as long as the Greek Cypriot side shows that it is also sincere.”

“Our aim is a lasting peace, lasting solution,” said Cavusoglu during the press conference. “We want the two sides to live in peace and quiet. We are ready to make every kind of contribution to this end.”

A Turkish Cypriot source, also speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed that Turkey is determined to see the solution process through, but emphasised that this is probably the last time it will play ball.

“Turkey is very willing to have this process finalised with an agreement,” the source said. “But this is probably the last chance it is giving us.”

In fact, Turkish officials, both publicly and in private conversations, have been quite outspoken about this process being a “last chance” for a federal solution in Cyprus.

“The United Nations is saying that this opportunity should not be missed, and so are we,” said Cavusoglu concluding his remarks. “We missed an important opportunity in 2004, not only in terms of a solution but also in terms of bringing out the full potential of this region… Let’s make the best of this last window of opportunity.”

http://in-cyprus.com/backdoor-negotiations/

Waiting for word from Turkey

By Lefteris Adilinis and Esra Aygin

May 26, 2017

Intense shuttle diplomacy by the UN between Cyprus leaders Nicos Anastasiades and Mustafa Akinci to bridge differences over the last phase of negotiations in Geneva hasn’t led to any results so far.

UN envoy Espen Barth Eide has been trying to broker a deal on the way forward.

Anastasiades, Akinci and apparently Ankara disagree over how the remaining issues on all six chapters will be taken up in Geneva.

Anastasiades wants to discuss security and guarantees first in the presence of guarantor powers Turkey, Greece, the UK and the EU before moving on to other aspects.

Akinci, on the other hand, says that as the 11 February 2014 joint communiqué stipulates all issues should be discussed interdependently rejecting any preconditions on how the final phase of the negotiations will be held.

Trip to Turkey

A Greek Cypriot source told the Cyprus Weekly that Anastasiades, has suggested to Eide to go to Ankara and discuss his proposal for a second Geneva.

Greek Cypriots understand that Akinci cannot commit Turkey to any decision related to the security and guarantees chapter.

That’s why it’s deemed necessary for Eide to visit Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s palace and meet his close adviser Ibrahim Kalin to get a definite answer on Geneva II.

Eide has announced that shuttle diplomacy will continue to bridge the remaining differences. “I want to be honest, the leaders are far apart on the methodology of the conference is concerned.”

Earlier he had pronounced his task was difficult because “the devil is in the details and the details are very important for both sides”.

Last night, Eide was scheduled to brief Anastasiades on Akinci’s reaction to his proposal.

An insider told The Cyprus Weekly that the leader’s conversation during a reception at the US Embassy could determine if there would be more meetings today and Saturday.

Elements of a deal

The leaders, since May 2015, have made significant progress on the internal aspects of the Cyprus problem, namely governance and power sharing, property, economy, European Union and territory.

Observers agree that some difficult issues remain in each chapter such as rotating presidency, who has the right to return, territorial adjustments as well as security and guarantees. There is an extensive understanding that there is not much left to do except enter the last phase of the big give-and-take.

“Both sides know what the final agreement will look like but are holding on to the issues they see as their biggest bargaining chips and the whole problem right now is who gives what and when,” said a source close to the negotiations. “So the impasse is over the methodology rather than content.”

A Greek Cypriot source told the Cyprus Weekly that Anastasiades will not necessarily insist on completing the security and guarantees chapter before taking up the rest of the issues. The source said that all Anastasiades needs is to have a clearer picture on what the ultimate security setup will be.

A Turkish Cypriot source however argued that Turkey has given very clear messages on security and guarantees and says it is impossible to give Anastasiades a clearer picture as this would very much depend on the ultimate decisions in other chapters such as governance and power sharing.

Rotating presidency may be key to troop withdrawal

By Esra Aygin

June 30, 2017

Turkey has linked any further openings in the security and guarantees chapter to the political equality of Turkish Cypriots, including rotating presidency, in a future federal Cyprus.

In the Cyprus conference in Crans-Montana, Switzerland, which began on Wednesday, Turkey, for the first time in 57 years it has formally offered to change the 1960 security arrangements in Cyprus and to reduce the number of Turkish troops on the island ‘drastically’ on the first day of solution and then negotiate a timeframe for the withdrawal of the troops, on the condition that the new federation is functioning smoothly.

Turkey also gave an open message that if the political equality of Turkish Cypriots is ensured through a rotating presidency, it will be more flexible in the security and guarantee chapter.

There seemed to be a tie-up in the negotiations on Thursday as Turkey, after the offer it made on Wednesday, is now expecting some developments on the political equality of Turkish Cypriots.

The chapter of security and guarantees is being negotiated on one table in the conference, while on a second table all outstanding issues in the chapters of governance and power sharing, property and territory are being discussed.

Morphou on the table

The main outstanding issues in these chapters are rotating presidency, the right of return in areas subject to territorial adjustments and in those that are not, and the return of the town of Morphou.

Sources close to the talks said that the Greek Cypriot side is ready to accommodate the Turkish Cypriot demand for rotating presidency, but only after the latter accepts to return Morphou. The Turkish Cypriot side however, seemed determined to keep Morphou until the very end.

The Turkish Cypriot side hopes that UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, who is scheduled to arrive in Crans-Montana this morning, will be key to unblocking the process and opening the way for mutual concessions.

UN Secretary General’s Special Advisor on Cyprus Espen Barth Eide, foreseeing such a tie-up said during a press conference, that there are issues remaining “because the leaders chose to put them on the list of those issues they can only deal with at the very end.”

“I think this is the moment to actually unwrap these issues as well” he added.

Vice-President of European Commission Frans Timmermans made clear during the Cyprus conference in Crans-Montana yesterday that the commission is ready to accommodate the equitable treatment of Turkish and Greek nationals in a future federal Cyprus.

Sources close to the talks stated that Timmermans talked of unique accommodation measures if necessary, so that Turkey can become the “most favoured nation” of a federal Cyprus in the event of a solution.

Realism needed on the security issue

By Esra Aygin

June 23, 2017

Our approach to the contested and sensitive issue of security and guarantees will be decisive on whether the Cyprus problem is solved or not.

And rather than being discussed publicly in a realistic and rational manner, it is being treated as a mere slogan.

Those who say a solution is not possible unless it results in zero troops and zero guarantees in Cyprus, conveniently overlook the fact that there are currently some 40,000 Turkish troops on the island and that Turkey is a guarantor power of the Republic of Cyprus with unilateral intervention rights as set out in Article IV* of the Treaty of Guarantees.

The Treaty of Guarantees as well as the Treaty of Alliance is currently in place and in effect.

And contrary to what many would like to think, the troop presence in Cyprus and Turkey’s rights arising from the Treaty of Guarantees and Alliance are not a problem of the northern part of Cyprus only.

The south is not an insulated, protected area that will suddenly be exposed to Turkey only in the case of a solution.

We live under conditions of ceasefire on this island. There is not even a ceasefire agreement – just a de facto ceasefire. Even this fact should be enough to make any reasonable person demand an end to the status quo and a successful conclusion of the negotiations process.

The failed military coup of July 15 in Turkey should have been enough to bring all of us out on the streets demanding a solution. However, we continue to bury our heads in the sand and imagine we live in a protective bubble.

Nobody has been able to answer my question of what would have happened in Cyprus if the July 15 coup attempt had been successful. Nobody knows. Nobody can.

Nobody can know what would happen tomorrow, if there is another military coup, an escalation of tension in Turkey, the seas around Cyprus or the region involving Turkey.

The choice we are faced with is not one between a demilitarised Cyprus without troops, guarantees or intervention rights against a few thousand troops stationed in one location for a certain period of time, and restricted guarantees without unilateral intervention rights.

The choice is one between 40,000 troops in 146 locations, effective guarantees and unilateral intervention rights and a few thousand troops stationed in one location for a certain period of time and restricted guarantees without unilateral intervention rights in a united EU member state.

A war was lost in 1974.

No victor has ever picked up its marbles and left just like that. And our immediate neighbourhood is a daily example that there is no need for any troop presence or guarantee agreement for the powerful to intervene in against the weak.

And the smaller, more divided, more ‘de facto’ a country is, the more exposed it is to an outside threat.

Now, we can all get realistic and rational, seize this opportunity to unite this island, and embrace a united Cyprus with all its citizens. Or we can reject a solution and continue to shout “zero troops, zero guarantees”.

And ironically, ensure that 40,000 troops stay in Cyprus, and Turkey remains a guarantor power with unilateral intervention rights. The time to make the choice has arrived.

*Article IV of Treaty of Guarantees

In the event of a breach of the provisions of the present Treaty, Greece, Turkey and the United Kingdom undertake to consult together with respect to the representations or measures necessary to ensure observance of those provisions.

In so far as common or concerted action may not prove possible, each of the three guaranteeing Powers reserves the right to take action with the sole aim of re-establishing the state of affairs created by the present Treaty.

Critical evening at Crans-Montana - Both sides need to take steps for progress

Esra Aygin

Both sides need to take steps for progress

Unilateral intervention outside SG’s framework and not included in Turkish proposals

UNSG to only come if there is progress

The sides have started substantial negotiations over the essential outstanding elements of the Cyprus problem in the conference in Crans-Montana.

The Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot sides have submitted their package proposals on governance and power-sharing, property, territory, security and guarantees and the equivalent treatment of Turkish and Greek nationals in a federal Cyprus. Guarantor states Turkey, Greece and the United Kingdom submitted their proposals on security and guarantees only.

The United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres on Friday had secured an agreement between all sides at the conference to deal with essential elements of a comprehensive solution through a holistic approach and submit proposals in line with a framework he devised, which excluded extreme positions on both sides.

For example, in this respect, Secretary General Guterres excluded the 0 troops 0 guarantees on day 1 position because it is unacceptable to the Turkish Cypriot side and the right of unilateral intervention by Turkey because this is unacceptable to the Greek Cypriot side.

Yesterday, the United Nations asked the Greek Cypriot side to revisit and resubmit their package of proposals because it excluded rotational presidency, which was within the framework set by Guterres. Upon this request the Greek Cypriot side added rotating presidency in their package of proposals and resubmitted.

Diplomatic sources are stating that although all the package proposals on the table now are within the framework that the UN Secretary-General put forward, the sides are still holding on to their cards and expecting a step from the other side. Sources are saying that both the Turkish Cypriot side and the Greek Cypriot side need to take mutual steps especially in the governance and power sharing and the security and guarantees issues.

The UN was said to be working on some methods to have the sides take simultaneous steps.

Sources are saying that Secretary-General Guterres will only return to Crans-Montana if there is progress on the table.

“If there is no progress by tomorrow morning there is no reason for the Secretary-General to come here,” said a source. “He will not come here and repeat what he did last Friday or try to save the process. He wants to see real determination and effort.”

Political observers agree that if there is no progress in Crans-Montana by the end of this week the negotiations will move back to Cyprus and continue, but only because no side including the UN would declare the negotiations dead.