Waiting for word from Turkey

By Lefteris Adilinis and Esra Aygin

May 26, 2017

Intense shuttle diplomacy by the UN between Cyprus leaders Nicos Anastasiades and Mustafa Akinci to bridge differences over the last phase of negotiations in Geneva hasn’t led to any results so far.

UN envoy Espen Barth Eide has been trying to broker a deal on the way forward.

Anastasiades, Akinci and apparently Ankara disagree over how the remaining issues on all six chapters will be taken up in Geneva.

Anastasiades wants to discuss security and guarantees first in the presence of guarantor powers Turkey, Greece, the UK and the EU before moving on to other aspects.

Akinci, on the other hand, says that as the 11 February 2014 joint communiqué stipulates all issues should be discussed interdependently rejecting any preconditions on how the final phase of the negotiations will be held.

Trip to Turkey

A Greek Cypriot source told the Cyprus Weekly that Anastasiades, has suggested to Eide to go to Ankara and discuss his proposal for a second Geneva.

Greek Cypriots understand that Akinci cannot commit Turkey to any decision related to the security and guarantees chapter.

That’s why it’s deemed necessary for Eide to visit Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s palace and meet his close adviser Ibrahim Kalin to get a definite answer on Geneva II.

Eide has announced that shuttle diplomacy will continue to bridge the remaining differences. “I want to be honest, the leaders are far apart on the methodology of the conference is concerned.”

Earlier he had pronounced his task was difficult because “the devil is in the details and the details are very important for both sides”.

Last night, Eide was scheduled to brief Anastasiades on Akinci’s reaction to his proposal.

An insider told The Cyprus Weekly that the leader’s conversation during a reception at the US Embassy could determine if there would be more meetings today and Saturday.

Elements of a deal

The leaders, since May 2015, have made significant progress on the internal aspects of the Cyprus problem, namely governance and power sharing, property, economy, European Union and territory.

Observers agree that some difficult issues remain in each chapter such as rotating presidency, who has the right to return, territorial adjustments as well as security and guarantees. There is an extensive understanding that there is not much left to do except enter the last phase of the big give-and-take.

“Both sides know what the final agreement will look like but are holding on to the issues they see as their biggest bargaining chips and the whole problem right now is who gives what and when,” said a source close to the negotiations. “So the impasse is over the methodology rather than content.”

A Greek Cypriot source told the Cyprus Weekly that Anastasiades will not necessarily insist on completing the security and guarantees chapter before taking up the rest of the issues. The source said that all Anastasiades needs is to have a clearer picture on what the ultimate security setup will be.

A Turkish Cypriot source however argued that Turkey has given very clear messages on security and guarantees and says it is impossible to give Anastasiades a clearer picture as this would very much depend on the ultimate decisions in other chapters such as governance and power sharing.

Cyprus at loggerheads over conference on security

Esra Aygin

Less than a month from a critical conference expected to determine the fate of Cyprus negotiations, disagreement over participation is dominating the agenda of Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots.

The Turkish Cypriot side says that the conference on 12 January in Geneva should include – in addition to the Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot sides – the guarantor states and the European Union.

The Greek Cypriot side, however, is insisting that the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council – the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom and France – as well as the Republic of Cyprus, are also present.

The sides are scheduled to meet in Geneva on January 9 to resolve outstanding issues of governance and power sharing, property, economy, EU and territory.

On January 12, guarantor states Turkey, Greece and the UK will join the sides in an effort to seal a deal on the contentious chapter of security and guarantees.

The demand to include the P5 “came out of nowhere”, a Turkish Cypriot source said.

“There is no such precedent. Never during 50 years of Cyprus negotiations were the P5 ever involved. Involving them would make the Cyprus problem part of much bigger negotiations in the region by big powers.”

Political analysts believe that the Greek Cypriot side, with the demand to include the P5 in the conference, may be seeking to create some kind of a balance between a strong Turkey versus a weak Greece.

In an interview with the Cyprus Weekly last week, UN envoy Espen Barth Eide said the planned ‘Conference on Cyprus’ in Geneva had taken inspiration from the 2004 Burgenstock conference, and that the UN, together with the two sides, had envisaged the participants to be the guarantor powers and the EU.

As for the participation of the P5, Eide was clear that the Security Council had a role to play not at the conference, but right after, when the outcome would be presented to it.

There is a need for consensus between the Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots for the UN to be able to extend invitations to any potential participant.

While the debate on participation continues, chief negotiators Ozdil Nami and Andreas Mavroyiannis are meeting frequently in a bid to reach as many convergences as possible ahead of the Geneva conference in mainly the first four chapters.

Despite public statements, talks have not been progressing well with the Turkish Cypriot side accusing the Greek Cypriot side with tabling new positions on agreed issues, and the latter accusing the Turkish Cypriot side with being uncompromising.

As a number of internal and external factors will increasingly complicate efforts to solve the Cyprus problem in 2017, there is an urgent need for the Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot leaders to focus on the substance of negotiations rather than procedure, and reach a compromise on the issues of importance before it’s too late.

http://in-cyprus.com/cyprus-at-loggerheads-over-conference-at-security/