Ergun Olgun: too yielding or too hardline?

By Esra Aygin

August 13, 2023

Speculation over the reasons for resignation of Turkish Cypriot leader’s representative

                                                                        Ergun Olgun

The Turkish Cypriot leader’s special representative Ergun Olgun recently unexpectedly resigned, sparking speculation that he was no longer seen fit for the job by Turkey. However, there are conflicting arguments over whether he was seen too yielding for a Turkey that has been insisting on a two-state solution in Cyprus; or whether he was seen too hardline for a Turkey that is recently signalling a more constructive stance.

Ergun Olgun, the 80-year-old die-hard advocate of an independent Turkish Cypriot state and the constant right hand of all hardline leaders from the late Rauf Denktash to Dervish Eroglu to the current Ersin Tatar, cited old age and said he was retiring rather than resigning.

“I am 80 years old. I don’t know how many more healthy years I have left. I want to spend time with my family,” he told the media, denying rumours of any disagreements on the Cyprus issue with Tatar or Turkey.

His resignation came a month after he was harshly criticised by ultra-nationalist circles for disclosing at a panel at Famagusta’s Eastern Mediterranean University DAU, that the Turkish side had abandoned its condition that the unilaterally declared Turkish Cypriot state – the ‘Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus TRNC’ – be recognised by the United Nations Security Council.

“We have right now passed beyond that link about a Security Council decision, and we have conveyed this to the Greek Cypriot side,” Olgun said at a panel on Turkey’s Foreign Policy in the Mediterranean. “We said…negotiations between the two sides can begin without that link, or condition… This is not something we made public, but we can say it in a closed setting… We are looking for ways to find alternative formulas.”

He was responding to former negotiator and leader of the People’s Party HP, Kudret Ozersay, who, at the same panel, criticised the Turkish side of setting the condition that the UN Security Council recognises the Turkish Cypriot state before starting any kind of negotiations. This condition was tabled by the Turkish side during an informal meeting with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres in Geneva in April 2021.

“Where did you find the right to abandon our national policy, which is to demand that the UN Security Council acknowledges our sovereign equality and equal international status?” asked ultra nationalist Sabahattin Ismail in his column in the daily Kibris after the recording of the panel was uploaded on YouTube. “Is Turkey and President Tatar aware of this?… What kind of an insanity is it to say one thing to the people and then compromise from the national policy behind closed doors?”

To ward off speculation that the special representative had left his post as a punishment for making this revelation or even this compromise, Tatar and Olgun gave a joint interview to the semi-official news agency TAK, constantly repeating they had no problems or disagreements. This only served to amplify the rumours. During the interview, the two also reiterated that the negotiations can only start with the acknowledgment of sovereign equality and equal international status.

“There were those, who were not comfortable with Ergun Olgun, and who even did not find him enough of a Turkish nationalist or pro-TRNC and kept attacking,” wrote journalist Serhat Incirli in the daily Yeniduzen. “And Ersin Tatar could protect Ergun Olgun. He didn’t.”

Other observers, however, underline that a small window of opportunity may have opened for Cyprus due to Ankara’s recent interest in reconciling with the European Union after the Turkish presidential elections and draw attention to the fact that Olgun’s resignation comes at a time of a seeming slight shift in Turkey’s position vis a vis the Cyprus problem.

In a recent statement, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan not only referenced the Annan Plan and expressed hope for a lasting and just peace in Cyprus, but he also spoke of a renewed rapprochement with the EU especially on visa-free travel and the customs union.

“We will not hesitate to take responsibility for the island of Cyprus to achieve a lasting and just peace,” said Erdogan following a cabinet meeting in Ankara. “We have shown our sincerity on this issue in every process up to now, including the Annan Plan, and we will [do it] again if necessary.”

Erdogan mentioned his meetings with world leaders including US President Joe Biden, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and French President Emmanuel Macron at the recent Vilnius Nato summit and said: “We have seen during these meetings that we have no problems with any country that cannot be solved. Provided that dialogue and diplomacy are given a chance, we believe that misunderstandings will be overcome, and disagreements will be solved.”

Shortly after President Erdogan, Turkish National Defence Minister Yasar Guler called for a fair and permanent solution to the Cyprus problem.

“The immediate solution of the Cyprus problem through securing the legitimate interests and security of Turkish Cypriots is one of the most important priorities of our country,” he said. “We have cannot afford to lose another 50 years on this. Our wish is that…a strong will is put forward for the peaceful, equal, and fair solution of the Cyprus problem, based on international law…”

Asked about a possible policy change by Turkey vis a vis Cyprus, Turkish Cypriot leader Tatar was in full denial.

“The policy that we are pursuing is the correct policy,” he told the media. “AKP [Justice and Development Party] and MHP [Nationalist Movement Party] are supporting this policy. There can be no turning back after this point. This is now an established policy.”

Underlining that the fact that elections in Turkey are over also provides for a greater room for manoeuvre. Fikri Toros, a deputy from the main opposition Republican Turkish Party CTP, says he expects some movement in the Cyprus issue as of autumn this year when the UN General Assembly will be held.

“I believe that the fact that Turkey has prioritised the revival of its relations with the EU and the US will open a new window of opportunity for the solution of the Cyprus problem,” says Toros.

Former negotiator Ozdil Nami agrees:

“Turkey had to keep its guard up… before the elections in Turkey. Turkey backtracking to this extent in the Cyprus issue was not rational. It was about internal politics. It was aimed at winning the elections. And that has happened.”

Nami added that Tatar would change his current hardline policy with just a phone call from Turkey.

It is not unprecedented for Turkish Cypriot negotiators or special representatives to suddenly change when there is a shift in Turkey’s Cyprus policy. In 2014, during Dervish Eroglu’s leadership, Turkish Cypriot hardline negotiator Osman Ertug was replaced with Kudret Ozersay. This was seen as an indication of Ankara’s willingness to keep the process alive and even bypass Eroglu following the joint statement of February 2014.

Days after his resignation, Olgun warned against a Greek Cypriot aim to extort concessions from Turkey by exploiting its possible desire to improve relations with Brussels and said it is impossible for Turkey to change its Cyprus policy.

The coming days will demonstrate the true reasons of Olgun’s departure as the person to replace him will bear the hints of the course Turkey will want to take in the Cyprus problem.

https://cyprus-mail.com/2023/08/13/ergun-olgun-too-yielding-or-too-hardline/

Getting down to business (The Cyprus Weekly, 16 May 2015)

Esra Aygin

In a new opportunity seen widely as the best in a decade and probably the last, Turkish Cypriot Leader Mustafa Akıncı and Greek Cypriot Leader Nicos Anastasiades are scheduled to meet today to resume negotiations for the comprehensive solution of the Cyprus 

problem.

The new pro-solution Turkish Cypriot leader Akıncı, together with his team headed by the experienced and knowledgeable negotiator Özdil Nami, is planning a very well-structured and intense process. According to sources, The Turkish Cypriot side aims to achieve substantial results by the third week of September, when the UN General Assembly will be held. The rationale behind this is to create the opportunity for the thorniest or most difficult issues to be taken up during the UN General Assembly in New York. To this end, Akıncı, who has stated that he prefers to deal with issues personally in direct, face-to-face meetings with Anastasiades, is expected propose that the leaders meet at least once every two weeks, while the leaders’ negotiators engage in a more frequent meeting schedule.

It is widely acknowledged that a failure in this round of negotiations between Akıncı – who won the Turkish Cypriot community’s overwhelming support for his vision for a federal solution on the island, and Anastasiades – who, taking a big political risk against all odds advocated a ‘yes’ vote for the Annan Plan in 2004 - would spell an end for hopes of any kind of federal solution. And there are clear indications that the international community, including the United Nations, would not be as willing to - let alone investing so much energy, time and money – get involved in any kind of dialogue between the sides beyond that point. Therefore, Akıncı and Anastasiades have on their shoulders a historic responsibility, which will determine the future of the island.

The sides - in an effort to create a common ground and vision for negotiations - are expected to spend the first couple of weeks into the process to review the progress made so far in negotiations carried out under the auspices of the UN Good Offices Mission. The guiding document will be 11 February 2014 Joint Communiqué, which sets out the framework for a federal solution on the island. Considering the fact that both the Turkish Cypriot and the Greek Cypriot side have submitted proposals that were not in line with the 11 February document over the last year, this exercise would help the sides to adopt positions compatible with the spirit of the Joint Communiqué.

Efforts on confidence building measures (CBMs) – especially ones that would contribute to and improve the daily lives of Cypriots on both sides of the island – are also expected to start immediately. The Turkish Cypriot side wants to first take up and solve, in a matter of a couple of weeks, the problem of interconnectivity, therefore enabling mobile phones to be used throughout the island through a roaming agreement. Other CBMs to be agreed upon by the Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot leader – such as introducing new crossing points or starting preparatory work for the opening of closed-off Varosha under UN supervision and the use of Famagusta Port and Ercan Airport for direct trade and flights - will most probably be taken up by technical teams in a parallel process to negotiations.

Nevertheless, Akıncı has been very specific in underlining in a couple of occasions that he will be careful not to focus on CBMs at the expense of comprehensive solution negotiations saying “All confidence building measures should be viewed as a catalyzing factor for the comprehensive solution.”

http://in-cyprus.com/getting-down-to-business/

Ankara plays ball (The Cyprus Weekly, 16 May 2015)

Esra Aygin

The new Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akıncı, emerges unscathed from his first official visit to Ankara as Turkish Cypriots are going through a historical period openly challenging decades of submissive relations with Turkey and demanding the restoration of their dignity.

Contrary to expectations, Akıncı’s visit to Ankara on Wednesday, which was deemed an important indicator as to what Turkey’s stance would be in the face of this important transformation within the Turkish Cypriot community as well as the solution process, was no stage to new crises.

During the visit, which took place a week after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told Akıncı that “his ears should hear what his mouth is saying” in response to the new leader’s call for a “relationship between brothers” with Turkey rather than one of a “motherland” and a “baby land,” the sides were poised for a positive start as they confirmed mutual-desire for a solution in Cyprus and agreed to cooperate to this end.

During the press conference that followed the meeting between Akıncı and Erdoğan, the latter refrained from using the phrase “baby land” and referred to the northern part of Cyprus as a “brother.” Erdoğan, reading from a carefully prepared text, stated that the year 2015 could be the year for solution in Cyprus and stated that Turkey would always support Akinci and his negotiation team in the peace process. The planned Q&A session at the end of the press conference was cancelled last minute in an apparent bid to prevent the revival of last week’s conflict.

Besides his commitment to a solution in Cyprus, Akıncı won the support of the majority of Turkish Cypriots in last month’s elections on his promise to build a different relation with Turkey based on an equal standing, rather than one between the dominant and subordinate. By electing Akıncı, Turkish Cypriots made a clear demand for a change in the traditional relationship with Turkey where the northern part of Cyprus is treated like an unofficial 82nd province.

Erdoğan’s public discourse, as well as the way the press conference was conducted contained many hints that the two had reached some kind of a modus vivendi. The negotiations set to resume in the coming days will show Ankara’s sincerity in her support for solution and Akıncı, but political analysts agree Erdoğan cannot take the risk of blocking an internationally-backed process, or mounting the tension with Turkish Cypriots. As a country already alienated in the region and in the world, it would be very difficult for Turkey to reject or hinder an agreement in Cyprus, which is based on the parameters of political equality, bi-zonality and bi-communality she has advocated for decades, and which will also serve her long-term interests.

“Akıncı’s vision for a federal solution is completely in line with the Turkish official positions tabled since 1974,” said Prof. Niyazi Kızılyürek, Dean of School of Humanities at the University of Cyprus. “I don’t expect any tension regarding the dimensions of the Cyprus settlement. And Turkey is clever enough not to play power games with a community, which started an identity movement based on dignity.”

The choice of Nami as negotiator

New Turkish Cypriot leader Akıncı, in a controversial decision last week, appointed “foreign minister” Özdil Nami as his chief negotiator. Akıncı was harshly criticized on social media for his choice especially by his far-left supporters, who argued Nami was a nationalist who did not believe in a federal solution and furthermore, was Ankara’s man representing the official Turkish positions rather than the aspirations of Turkish Cypriots.

Others speculated that Nami was imposed on Akıncı by either the Republican Turkish Party CTP in exchange for supporting him in the second round against Derviş Eroğlu, or worse, or by Ankara, who wanted to make sure Akıncı stays in line with Turkey’s policies during the negotiations.

A closer look at Akıncı’s decision however, shows that this was a well-contemplated, strategic and pragmatic decision that enabled the new leader to kill a couple of birds with one stone. Nami, who was the special representative in the talks between former leaders Mehmet Ali Talat and Demetris Christofias between 2008 and 2010, is an experienced negotiator, who knows inside out all the topics of the Cyprus problem and therefore, is ready to literally dive into the process, which is expected to be a speedy and results-oriented one.

By appointing Nami, Akıncı has also taken CTP on board and secured its cooperation and support in the negotiations process, literally creating a peace alliance. As a person coming from the political circle and who has positive relations with not only Ankara, but in general with all the international actors, Nami will be key in managing sensitive liaisons. He is also one of the few who if necessary, could use his leverage to convince Ankara to support certain steps Akıncı may want to take along the process.

http://in-cyprus.com/ankara-plays-ball/